气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab6999
	Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?
	Undorf S.; Allen K.; Hagg J.; Li S.; Lott F.C.; Metzger M.J.; Sparrow S.N.; Tett S.F.B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:3
英文摘要	To understand whether high temperatures and temperature extremes are important for climate change adaptation in Scotland, we place the 2018 heatwave in the context of past, present, and future climate, and provide a rapid but comprehensive impact analysis. The observed hottest day (d), 5 d, and 30 d period of 2018 and the 5 d period with the warmest nights had return periods of 5-15 years for 1950-2018. The warmest night and the maximum 30 d average nighttime temperature were more unusual with return periods of >30 years. Anthropogenic climate change since 1850 has made all these high-temperature extremes more likely. Higher risk ratios are found for experiments from the CMIP6-generation global climate model HadGEM3-GA6 compared to those from the very-large ensemble system weather@home. Between them, the best estimates of the risk ratios for daytime extremes range between 1.2-2.4, 1.2-2.3, and 1.4-4.0 for the 1, 5, and 30 d averages. For the corresponding nighttime extremes, the values are higher and the ranges wider (1.5- >50, 1.5-5.5, and 1.6- >50). The short-period nighttime extremes were more likely in 2018 than in 2017, suggesting a contribution from year-to-year climate variability to the risk enhancement of extreme temperatures due to anthropogenic effects. Climate projections suggest further substantial increases in the likelihood of 2018 temperatures between now and 2050, and that towards the end of the century every summer might be as hot as 2018. Major negative impacts occurred, especially on rural sectors, while transport and water infrastructure alleviated most impacts by implementing costly special measures. Overall, Scotland could cope with the impacts of the 2018 heatwave. However, given the likelihood increase of high-temperature extremes, uncertainty about consequences of even higher temperatures and/or repeated heatwaves, and substantial costs of preventing negative impacts, we conclude that despite its cool climate, high-temperature extremes are important to consider for climate change adaptation in Scotland. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	adaptation; climate change; event attribution; heatwave impacts; summer 2018; temperature extremes; UKclimate
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; adaptation; event attribution; heatwave impacts; summer 2018; Temperature extremes; UKclimate; Climate change; anthropogenic effect; climate change; climate modeling; extreme event; heat wave; high temperature; infrastructure planning; nature-society relations; water management; Scotland; United Kingdom
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154211
作者单位	School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden; Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QG, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3 PB, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Undorf S.,Allen K.,Hagg J.,et al. Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?[J],2020,15(3).
APA	Undorf S..,Allen K..,Hagg J..,Li S..,Lott F.C..,...&Tett S.F.B..(2020).Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?.Environmental Research Letters,15(3).
MLA	Undorf S.,et al."Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?".Environmental Research Letters 15.3(2020).