气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab702c
	Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century
	Sy S.; Quesada B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:3
英文摘要	Anthropogenic land cover change (LCC) can have significant impacts at regional and seasonal scales but also for extreme weather events to which socio-economical systems are vulnerable. However, the effects of LCC on extreme events remain either largely unexplored and/or without consensus following modelling over the historical period (often based on a single model), regional or idealized studies. Here, using simulations performed with five earth system models under common future global LCC scenarios (the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 Representative Concentration Pathways) and analyzing 20 extreme weather indices, we find future LCC substantially modulates projected weather extremes. On average by the end of the 21st century, under RCP8.5, future LCC robustly lessens global projections of high rainfall extremes by 22% for heavy precipitation days (>10 mm) and by 16% for total precipitation amount of wet days (PRCPTOT). Accounting for LCC diminishes their regional projections by >50% (70%) in southern Africa (northeastern Brazil) but intensifies projected dry days in eastern Africa by 29%. LCC does not substantially affect projections of global and regional temperature extremes (<5%), but it can impact global rainfall extremes 2.5 times more than global mean rainfall projections. Under an RCP2.6 scenario, global LCC impacts are similar but of lesser magnitude, while at regional scale in Amazon or Asia, LCC enhances drought projections. We stress here that multi-coupled modelling frameworks incorporating all aspects of land use are needed for reliable projections of extreme events. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	attribution; deforestation; model intercomparison; rainfall extremes; temperature extremes
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Deforestation; Electric power system interconnection; Land use; Rain; attribution; Extreme weather events; Heavy precipitation; Model inter comparisons; Northeastern Brazil; Rainfall extremes; Temperature extremes; Total precipitation; Extreme weather; anthropogenic effect; climate modeling; deforestation; drought; extreme event; land cover; land use; rainfall; twenty first century; Africa; Amazonia; Asia; Brazil
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154208
作者单位	Italian National Research Council (CNR), Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis (IMAA), CNR-IMAA, Zona Industriale, Tito Scalo (Potenza), 85050, Italy; Universidad del Rosario, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Interactions Climate-Ecosystems (ICE), Research Group, Kr 26 No 63B-48, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sy S.,Quesada B.. Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century[J],2020,15(3).
APA	Sy S.,&Quesada B..(2020).Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century.Environmental Research Letters,15(3).
MLA	Sy S.,et al."Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century".Environmental Research Letters 15.3(2020).