气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab6b33
	Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa
	Gudoshava M.; Misiani H.O.; Segele Z.T.; Jain S.; Ouma J.O.; Otieno G.; Anyah R.; Indasi V.S.; Endris H.S.; Osima S.; Lennard C.; Zaroug M.; Mwangi E.; Nimusiima A.; Kondowe A.; Ogwang B.; Artan G.; Atheru Z.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:3
英文摘要	This study examines the effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels (GWLs) on intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa. The impacts are analysed based on the outputs of a 25-member regional multi-model ensemble from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project. The regional climate models were driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Global Climate Models for historical and future (RCP8.5) periods. We analyse the three major seasons over the region, namely March-May, June-September, and October-December. Results indicate widespread robust changes in the mean intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics at 1.5 °C and 2 °C GWLs especially for the June-September and October-December seasons. The March-May season is projected to shift for both GWL scenarios with the season starting and ending early. During the June-September season, there is a robust indication of delayed onset, reduction in consecutive wet days and shortening of the length of rainy season over parts of the northern sector under 2 °C GWL. During the October-December season, the region is projected to have late-onset, delayed cessation, reduced consecutive wet days and a longer season over most of the equatorial region under the 2 °C GWL. These results indicate that it is crucial to limit the GWL to below 1.5 °C as the differences between the 1.5 °C and 2 °C GWLs in some cases exacerbates changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	cessation; consecutive wet and dry days; CORDEX; global warming levels; greater horn of Africa; length of rainy season; rainfall onset
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Electric power system interconnection; Global warming; Rain; cessation; CORDEX; greater horn of Africa; Rainy seasons; Wet and dry; Climate models; atmospheric modeling; CMIP; global warming; numerical model; rainfall; regional climate; Horn of Africa
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154205
作者单位	National University of Science and Technology, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe; IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, Nairobi, Kenya; University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia; University of Connecticut, Connecticut, United States; African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD), Niamey, Niger; Tanzania Meteorological Agency, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa; Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat, Entebbe, Uganda; Kenya RedCross, Nairobi, Kenya; Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda; Uganda National Meteorological Authority, Kampala, Uganda
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gudoshava M.,Misiani H.O.,Segele Z.T.,et al. Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa[J],2020,15(3).
APA	Gudoshava M..,Misiani H.O..,Segele Z.T..,Jain S..,Ouma J.O..,...&Atheru Z..(2020).Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa.Environmental Research Letters,15(3).
MLA	Gudoshava M.,et al."Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa".Environmental Research Letters 15.3(2020).