气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): First process-based simulations of climate change impacts on global tea production indicate large effects in the World's major producer countries

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab649b
	First process-based simulations of climate change impacts on global tea production indicate large effects in the World's major producer countries
	Beringer T.; Kulak M.; Müller C.; Schaphoff S.; Jans Y.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:3
英文摘要	Modeling of climate change impacts have mainly been focused on a small number of annual staple crops that provide most of the world's calories. Crop models typically do not represent perennial crops despite their high economic, nutritional, or cultural value. Here we assess climate change impacts on global tea production, chosen because of its high importance in culture and livelihoods of people around the world. We extended the dynamic global vegetation model with managed land, LPJmL4, global crop model to simulate the cultivation of tea plants. Simulated tea yields were validated and found in good agreement with historical observations as well as experiments on the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations. We then projected yields into the future under a range of climate scenarios from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Under current irrigation levels and lowest climate change scenarios, tea yields are expected to decrease in major producing countries. In most climate scenarios, we project that tea yields are set to increase in China, India, and Vietnam. However, yield losses are expected to affect Kenya, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. If abundant water supply and full irrigation is assumed for all tea cultivation areas, yields are projected to increase in all regions. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	agriculture; climate change; climate change impacts; crop model; tea
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Climate models; Crops; Cultivation; Irrigation; Tea; Vegetation; Water supply; Climate change impact; Climate change scenarios; Climate scenarios; CO2 concentration; Crop model; Historical observation; Irrigation level; Sectoral impacts; Climate change; agricultural modeling; agrometeorology; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; cultivation; irrigation system; tea; water supply; China; India; Indonesia; Kenya; Sri Lanka; Viet Nam
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154202
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Climate Resilience, Potsdam, Germany; Unilever, Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre (SEAC), Bedfordshire, Colworth Science Park, Sharnbrook, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Beringer T.,Kulak M.,Müller C.,et al. First process-based simulations of climate change impacts on global tea production indicate large effects in the World's major producer countries[J],2020,15(3).
APA	Beringer T.,Kulak M.,Müller C.,Schaphoff S.,&Jans Y..(2020).First process-based simulations of climate change impacts on global tea production indicate large effects in the World's major producer countries.Environmental Research Letters,15(3).
MLA	Beringer T.,et al."First process-based simulations of climate change impacts on global tea production indicate large effects in the World's major producer countries".Environmental Research Letters 15.3(2020).