气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Greenhouse gas implications of mobilizing agricultural biomass for energy: a reassessment of global potentials in 2050 under different food-system pathways

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab6c2e
	Greenhouse gas implications of mobilizing agricultural biomass for energy: a reassessment of global potentials in 2050 under different food-system pathways
	Kalt G.; Lauk C.; Mayer A.; Theurl M.C.; Kaltenegger K.; Winiwarter W.; Erb K.-H.; Matej S.; Haberl H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:3
英文摘要	Global bioenergy potentials have been the subject of extensive research and continued controversy. Due to vast uncertainties regarding future yields, diets and other influencing parameters, estimates of future agricultural biomass potentials vary widely. Most scenarios compatible with ambitious climate targets foresee a large expansion of bioenergy, mainly from energy crops that needs to be kept consistent with projections of agriculture and food production. Using the global biomass balance model BioBaM, we here present an assessment of agricultural bioenergy potentials compatible with the Food and Agriculture Organization's (2018) 'Alternative pathways to 2050' projections. Mobilizing biomass at larger scales may be associated with systemic feedbacks causing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, e.g. crop residue removal resulting in loss of soil carbon stocks and increased emissions from fertilization. To assess these effects, we derive 'GHG cost supply-curves', i.e. integrated representations of biomass potentials and their systemic GHG costs. Livestock manure is most favourable in terms of GHG costs, as anaerobic digestion yields reductions of GHG emissions from manure management. Global potentials from intensive livestock systems are about 5 EJ/yr. Crop residues can provide up to 20 EJ/yr at moderate GHG costs. For energy crops, we find that the medium range of literature estimates (∼40 to 90 EJ/yr) is only compatible with FAO yield and human diet projections if energy plantations expand into grazing areas (∼4-5 million km2) and grazing land is intensified globally. Direct carbon stock changes associated with perennial energy crops are beneficial for climate mitigation, yet there are - sometimes considerable - 'opportunity GHG costs' if one accounts the foregone opportunity of afforestation. Our results indicate that the large potentials of energy crops foreseen in many energy scenarios are not freely and unconditionally available. Disregarding systemic effects in agriculture can result in misjudgement of GHG saving potentials and flawed climate mitigation strategies. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	agriculture; bioenergy; biomass potentials; energy scenario; energy transition; GHGcost curve; natural climate solutions
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agricultural robots; Agriculture; Anaerobic digestion; Carbon; Crops; Fertilizers; Gas emissions; Greenhouse gases; Manures; Reforestation; Uncertainty analysis; Bio-energy; Biomass potential; Energy scenarios; Energy transitions; GHGcost curve; Biomass; afforestation; anaerobic digestion; assessment method; bioenergy; biomass power; carbon sequestration; carbon storage; crop residue; fertilizer application; greenhouse gas; livestock; mitigation; mobilization; plantation; soil carbon; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154174
作者单位	Institute of Social Ecology (SEC), Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Schottenfeldgasse 29, Vienna, A-1070, Austria; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria; Institute of Environmental Engineering, University of Zielona Góra, Licealna 9, Zielona Góra, PL 65-417, Poland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kalt G.,Lauk C.,Mayer A.,et al. Greenhouse gas implications of mobilizing agricultural biomass for energy: a reassessment of global potentials in 2050 under different food-system pathways[J],2020,15(3).
APA	Kalt G..,Lauk C..,Mayer A..,Theurl M.C..,Kaltenegger K..,...&Haberl H..(2020).Greenhouse gas implications of mobilizing agricultural biomass for energy: a reassessment of global potentials in 2050 under different food-system pathways.Environmental Research Letters,15(3).
MLA	Kalt G.,et al."Greenhouse gas implications of mobilizing agricultural biomass for energy: a reassessment of global potentials in 2050 under different food-system pathways".Environmental Research Letters 15.3(2020).