气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab7668
	Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions
	Van Der Wiel K.; Selten F.M.; Bintanja R.; Blackport R.; Screen J.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:3
英文摘要	The investigation of risk due to weather and climate events is an example of policy relevant science. Risk is the result of complex interactions between the physical environment (geophysical events or conditions, including but not limited to weather and climate events) and societal factors (vulnerability and exposure). The societal impact of two similar meteorological events at different times or different locations may therefore vary widely. Despite the complex relation between meteorological conditions and impacts, most meteorological research is focused on the occurrence or severity of extreme meteorological events, and climate impact research often undersamples climatological natural variability. Here we argue that an approach of ensemble climate-impact modelling is required to adequately investigate the relationship between meteorology and extreme impact events. We demonstrate that extreme weather conditions do not always lead to extreme impacts; in contrast, extreme impacts may result from (coinciding) moderate weather conditions. Explicit modelling of climate impacts, using the complete distribution of weather realisations, is thus necessary to ensure that the most extreme impact events are identified. The approach allows for the investigation of high-impact meteorological conditions and provides higher accuracy for consequent estimates of risk. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	extreme climate; extreme weather; impacts; large ensemble; risk; society
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Environmental engineering; Research; Risks; Climate impact researches; Extreme climates; Extreme weather conditions; impacts; large ensemble; Meteorological condition; Meteorological research; society; Extreme weather; climate conditions; climate effect; climate modeling; extreme event; meteorology; risk assessment
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154170
作者单位	Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Van Der Wiel K.,Selten F.M.,Bintanja R.,et al. Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions[J],2020,15(3).
APA	Van Der Wiel K.,Selten F.M.,Bintanja R.,Blackport R.,&Screen J.A..(2020).Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions.Environmental Research Letters,15(3).
MLA	Van Der Wiel K.,et al."Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions".Environmental Research Letters 15.3(2020).