气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Major factors of global and regional monsoon rainfall changes: natural versus anthropogenic forcing

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab7767
	Major factors of global and regional monsoon rainfall changes: natural versus anthropogenic forcing
	Ha K.-J.; Kim B.-H.; Chung E.-S.; Chan J.C.L.; Chang C.-P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:3
英文摘要	A number of studies have investigated the mechanisms that determine changes in precipitation, including how a wet region gets wetter. However, not all monsoon areas get wetter - there is a need to understand the major factors behind changes in regional monsoon precipitation, in terms of external forcing and internal variabilities in the last six decades by a combination of different observed datasets and model runs. We have found that time of emergence of anthropogenic signals is robustly detected in the northern African monsoon before the 1990s with the use of the CESM Large Ensemble Project. From CMIP5 model runs and three reanalysis datasets, the results found are that the change in rainfall over African monsoon (AFM) is mainly due to anthropogenic forcing and that over Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) is affected by internal variability. Moreover, the cause of American monsoon (AMM) rainfall change cannot be known due to a discrepancy among observed datasets. Here we show that the asymmetry between Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) parts by green-house gas (GHG) is detected over the AFM and AAM regions. However, the land monsoon rainfall in the northern AMM is decreased by a combination of GHG and aerosol forcing. In general, the aerosol forcing causes a decreasing rainfall over the monsoon regions. In future projection, the land rainfall over the AAM and AMM are expected to increase and decrease in the future from most models' results. The asymmetry between an increase in NH and a decrease in SH is dominant in the future from most models' future simulation results, which is well shown over the AFM and AAM. This study suggests that the physical process of GHG and aerosol effects in rainfall should be explored in the context of regional aspects. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	external forcing; internal variability; monsoon; precipitation; rainfall; time of emergence
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Aerosols; Greenhouse gases; Precipitation (chemical); Rain; Anthropogenic forcing; Anthropogenic signals; External forcing; Internal variability; monsoon; Monsoon precipitation; Southern Hemisphere; time of emergence; Atmospheric thermodynamics; aerosol; anthropogenic effect; CMIP; monsoon; Northern Hemisphere; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; Southern Hemisphere
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154169
作者单位	Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea; Research Center for Climate Sciences and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ha K.-J.,Kim B.-H.,Chung E.-S.,et al. Major factors of global and regional monsoon rainfall changes: natural versus anthropogenic forcing[J],2020,15(3).
APA	Ha K.-J.,Kim B.-H.,Chung E.-S.,Chan J.C.L.,&Chang C.-P..(2020).Major factors of global and regional monsoon rainfall changes: natural versus anthropogenic forcing.Environmental Research Letters,15(3).
MLA	Ha K.-J.,et al."Major factors of global and regional monsoon rainfall changes: natural versus anthropogenic forcing".Environmental Research Letters 15.3(2020).