气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global warming to increase violent crime in the United States

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab6b37
	Global warming to increase violent crime in the United States
	Harp R.D.; Karnauskas K.B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:3
英文摘要	Recent studies have revealed large and robust correlations between seasonal climate and violent crime rates at regional scales within the continental United States, begging the question of how future climate change will influence violent crime rates. Here, we combine empirical models from previous studies with 42 state-of-the-art global climate models to make such projections, while accounting for key factors like regionality and seasonality, and appropriately combining multiple of sources of uncertainty. Our results indicate that the United States should expect an additional 3.2 [2.1-4.5] or 2.3 [1.5-3.2] million violent crimes between 2020 and 2099, depending on greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We also reveal critical dependencies of these violent crime projections on various global warming targets, such as those associated with the Paris Agreement (1.5 °C and 2 °C). These results emphasize the often-overlooked socially-mediated impacts of climate change on human health, with an estimated economic cost of $5 billion annually. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate; crime; health; impacts; projection; violent
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Crime; Gas emissions; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Health; climate; Empirical model; Global climate model; impacts; projection; Sources of uncertainty; State of the art; violent; Climate models; climate change; climate modeling; cost analysis; crime; global climate; global warming; greenhouse gas; health impact; international agreement; violence; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154157
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Earth Lab, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Harp R.D.,Karnauskas K.B.. Global warming to increase violent crime in the United States[J],2020,15(3).
APA	Harp R.D.,&Karnauskas K.B..(2020).Global warming to increase violent crime in the United States.Environmental Research Letters,15(3).
MLA	Harp R.D.,et al."Global warming to increase violent crime in the United States".Environmental Research Letters 15.3(2020).