气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential shifts in the aboveground biomass and physiognomy of a seasonally dry tropical forest in a changing climate

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab7394
	Potential shifts in the aboveground biomass and physiognomy of a seasonally dry tropical forest in a changing climate
	Castanho A.D.A.; Coe M.T.; Brando P.; Macedo M.; Baccini A.; Walker W.; Andrade E.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:3
英文摘要	Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) account for one-third of the interannual variability of global net primary productive (NPP). Large-scale shifts in dry tropical forest structure may thus significantly affect global CO2 fluxes in ways that are not fully accounted for in current projections. This study quantifies how changing climate might reshape one of the largest SDTFs in the world, the Caatinga region of northeast Brazil. We combine historical data and future climate projections under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs), together with spatially explicit aboveground biomass estimates to establish relationships between climate and vegetation distribution. We find that physiognomies, aboveground biomass, and climate are closely related in the Caatinga - and that the region's bioclimatic envelope is shifting rapidly. From 2008-2017, more than 90% of the region has shifted to a dryer climate space compared to the reference period 1950-1979. An ensemble of global climate models (based on IPCC AR5) indicates that by the end of the 21st century the driest Caatinga physiognomies (thorn woodlands to non-vegetated areas) could expand from 55% to 78% (RCP 2.6) or as much as 87% (RCP8.5) of the region. Those changes would correspond to a decrease of 30%-50% of the equilibrium aboveground biomass by the end of the century (RCP 2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). Our results are consistent with historic vegetation shifts reported for other SDTFs. Projected changes for the Caatinga would have large-scale impacts on the region's biomass and biodiversity, underscoring the importance of SDTFs for the global carbon budget. Understanding such changes as presented in this study will be useful for regional planning and could help mitigate their negative social impacts. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	biodiversity; biomass; Caatinga; climate change; semi-arid; vegetation type
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Biodiversity; Biomass; Budget control; Climate models; Forestry; Regional planning; Tropics; Vegetation; Bioclimatic envelopes; Caatinga; Future climate projections; Interannual variability; Seasonally dry tropical forests; Semi arid; Vegetation distribution; Vegetation type; Climate change; aboveground biomass; caatinga; climate change; climate effect; dry forest; global climate; seasonality; semiarid region; tropical forest; vegetation type; Brazil
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154151
作者单位	Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, United States; Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States; Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil; Department of Earth System, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, United States; Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (IPAM), SHIN, CA-5, Brasilia, DF 7500, Brazil; Department of Soil and Water Conservation, Federal University of the Semi-Arid Region, Mossoró, RN, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Castanho A.D.A.,Coe M.T.,Brando P.,et al. Potential shifts in the aboveground biomass and physiognomy of a seasonally dry tropical forest in a changing climate[J],2020,15(3).
APA	Castanho A.D.A..,Coe M.T..,Brando P..,Macedo M..,Baccini A..,...&Andrade E.M..(2020).Potential shifts in the aboveground biomass and physiognomy of a seasonally dry tropical forest in a changing climate.Environmental Research Letters,15(3).
MLA	Castanho A.D.A.,et al."Potential shifts in the aboveground biomass and physiognomy of a seasonally dry tropical forest in a changing climate".Environmental Research Letters 15.3(2020).