气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future evolution of surface solar radiation and photovoltaic potential in Europe: investigating the role of aerosols

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab6666
	Future evolution of surface solar radiation and photovoltaic potential in Europe: investigating the role of aerosols
	Gutiérrez C.; Somot S.; Nabat P.; Mallet M.; Corre L.; Van Meijgaard E.; Perpiñán O.; Gaertner M.Á.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:3
英文摘要	In recent decades, trends in photovoltaic (PV) technology deployment have shown an overall increase across the world. Comprehensive knowledge of the solar resource and its future evolution is demanded by the energy sector. Solar resource and PV potential have been estimated in several studies using both the global climate model (GCM) and regional climate model (RCM), revealing a GCM-RCM discrepancy in the projected change over Europe. An increase in surface solar radiation (SSR) (and therefore in PV potential production) is projected by GCMs, whereas most RCM simulations project a decrease in SSR over Europe. In this work, we investigate the role of aerosol forcing in RCMs as a key explaining factor of this inconsistency. The results show that RCM simulations including evolving aerosols agree with GCMs in the sign and amplitude of the SSR change over Europe for mid-21st century projections (2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000 for representative concentration pathway climate change scenario RCP8.5). The opposite signal is projected by the rest of the RCMs. The amplitude of the changes likely depends on the RCM and on its aerosol forcing choice. In terms of PV potential, RCMs including evolving aerosols simulate an increase, especially in summer for Central and Eastern Europe, with maximum values reaching +10% in some cases. This study illustrates the key role of the often-neglected aerosol forcing evolution in RCMs. It also suggests that it is important to be very careful when using the multi-model Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) projections for solar radiation and related variables, and argues for the inclusion of aerosol forcing evolution in the next generation of CORDEX simulations. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	aerosols; photovoltaic energy; photovoltaic future projections; regional climate modeling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Aerosols; Climate models; Electric power system interconnection; Solar power generation; Solar radiation; Central and Eastern Europe; Climate change scenarios; Future projections; Photovoltaic energy; Photovoltaic technology; Regional climate modeling; Regional climate modeling (RCM); Surface solar radiation; Climate change; aerosol; climate change; climate modeling; future prospect; global climate; photovoltaic system; regional climate; solar power; solar radiation; Eastern Europe
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154141
作者单位	Environmental Sciences Institute, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Avenida Carlos III s/n, Toledo, 45071, Spain; Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, CNRM, UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), PO Box 3730AE, De Bilt, Netherlands; ETSIDI-UPM, Departamento de Ingenería Eléctrica, Electrónica, Automática y Física Aplicada, Ronda de Valencia 3, MADRID, 28012, Spain; Faculty of Environmental Science and Biochemistry, University ofCastilla-La Mancha, Avenida Carlos III s/n, Toledo, 45071, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gutiérrez C.,Somot S.,Nabat P.,et al. Future evolution of surface solar radiation and photovoltaic potential in Europe: investigating the role of aerosols[J],2020,15(3).
APA	Gutiérrez C..,Somot S..,Nabat P..,Mallet M..,Corre L..,...&Gaertner M.Á..(2020).Future evolution of surface solar radiation and photovoltaic potential in Europe: investigating the role of aerosols.Environmental Research Letters,15(3).
MLA	Gutiérrez C.,et al."Future evolution of surface solar radiation and photovoltaic potential in Europe: investigating the role of aerosols".Environmental Research Letters 15.3(2020).