气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A new risk probability calculation method for urban ecological risk assessment

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab6667
	A new risk probability calculation method for urban ecological risk assessment
	Liu C.; Chen W.; Hou Y.; Ma L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:2
英文摘要	The ecological risk associated with urbanization is of great concern where multiple stressors and risk receptors co-exist. Probabilistic risk characterization methods were rarely applied in past urban ecological risk assessments because of the difficulties in the derivation of theoretical probability distribution functions and the definite integral calculation. Therefore, we proposed a new method which is based on computer simulation and able to facilitate the calculation of risk probabilities. This method quantifies multiple ecological risk-related indicators using ecological models, implements Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the risk probability of single indicators, and applies the copula model to calculate the joint risk probability of multiple indicators. We conducted an assessment of urban ecological risk related to urban surface water environment in Beijing as a case study to validate this method. The results show that the means of surface runoff risk probability, total nitrogen pollutant load risk probability, and comprehensive (joint) risk probability were 0.33, 0.44, and 0.23, respectively, in the areas within Beijing Sixth Ring Road. All three types of risk were at moderate levels in the study areas, but exhibited high spatial heterogeneity and urban-suburban gradient. The average contributions of the three risk types were 25% (surface runoff risk), 32% (total nitrogen pollutant load risk), and 43% (comprehensive risk), indicating that the joint risk was overall the major risk type. In conclusion, our method considering multiple indicators and their probabilistic attributes can handle the uncertainties in ecological models and thus has potential to evaluate different types of urban ecological risks. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	copula function; Monte Carlo simulation; risk probability; urban ecological risk assessment; water environment
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Distribution functions; Intelligent systems; Monte Carlo methods; Nitrogen; Pollution; Runoff; Copula functions; Ecological risk assessment; Multiple indicators; Probabilistic risk characterizations; Risk probabilities; Spatial heterogeneity; Urban surface waters; Water environments; Risk assessment; environmental risk; heterogeneity; Monte Carlo analysis; numerical method; probability; probability density function; risk assessment; runoff; surface water; urbanization; water pollution; Beijing [China]
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154108
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; University of California, Santa Barbara, 93117, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu C.,Chen W.,Hou Y.,et al. A new risk probability calculation method for urban ecological risk assessment[J],2020,15(2).
APA	Liu C.,Chen W.,Hou Y.,&Ma L..(2020).A new risk probability calculation method for urban ecological risk assessment.Environmental Research Letters,15(2).
MLA	Liu C.,et al."A new risk probability calculation method for urban ecological risk assessment".Environmental Research Letters 15.2(2020).