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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab70bc
	Changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate
	Liu Q.; Tan Z.-M.; Sun J.; Hou Y.; Fu C.; Wu Z.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:4
英文摘要	It is believed that the continuing change in the Earth's climate will affect the viral activity and transmission of influenza over the coming decades. However, a consensus of the severity of the risk of an influenza epidemic in a warming climate has not been reached. It was previously reported that the warmer winter can reduce influenza epidemic caused mortality, but this relation cannot explain the deadly influenza epidemic in many countries over northern mid-latitudes in the winter of 2017-2018, one of the warmest winters in recent decades. Here, we reveal that the widely spread 2017-2018 influenza epidemic can be attributed to the abnormally strong rapid weather variability. We demonstrate, from historical data, that the large rapid weather variability in autumn can precondition the deadly influenza epidemic in the subsequent months in highly populated northern mid-latitudes; and the influenza epidemic season of 2017-2018 was a typical case. We further show that climate model projections reach a consensus that the rapid weather variability in autumn will continue to strengthen in some regions of northern mid-latitudes in a warming climate, implying that the risk of an influenza epidemic may increase 20% to 50% in some highly populated regions in the later 21st century. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Climate change; Influenza epidemic; North mid-latitude; Predictable model; Rapid weather variability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Earth (planet); Epidemiology; Earth's climate; Historical data; Influenza epidemics; Midlatitudes; Warming climate; Weather variability; Climate change; abnormality; climate change; climate effect; disease transmission; epidemic; health risk; historical record; influenza; mortality; twenty first century; warming
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154086
作者单位	School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China; Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, United States; Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China; State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology, Division of Immunology, Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu Q.,Tan Z.-M.,Sun J.,et al. Changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate[J],2020,15(4).
APA	Liu Q.,Tan Z.-M.,Sun J.,Hou Y.,Fu C.,&Wu Z..(2020).Changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate.Environmental Research Letters,15(4).
MLA	Liu Q.,et al."Changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate".Environmental Research Letters 15.4(2020).