气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b
	Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
	Ito A.; Reyer C.P.O.; Gädeke A.; Ciais P.; Chang J.; Chen M.; François L.; Forrest M.; Hickler T.; Ostberg S.; Shi H.; Thiery W.; Tian H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:4
英文摘要	Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30-60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Biome sector; Climatic impacts; ISIMIP2b; Northern high latitudes; Paris agreement
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Biomass; Budget control; Carbon; Ecosystems; Emission control; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Photosynthesis; Phytoplankton; Vegetation; Atmospheric greenhouse; Biomass accumulation; Global climate model; Modeling variability; Net primary productivity; Pre-industrial levels; Primary productivity; Terrestrial ecosystems; Climate models; biomass; carbon sequestration; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; global climate; global warming; latitude; net primary production; permafrost; soil carbon; terrestrial ecosystem; tundra; Arctic
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154079
作者单位	National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan; Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climate et de l'Environment, IPSL-LSCE, CEA-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette, F-91191, France; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, United States; U R SPHERES, Univeristé de Liège, Liège, B-4000, Belgium; Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt am Main, D-60325, Germany; Department of Physical Geography, Goethe University, Altenhöferallee1, Frankfurt am Main, D-60438, Germany; International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, United States; ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Uni...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ito A.,Reyer C.P.O.,Gädeke A.,et al. Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems[J],2020,15(4).
APA	Ito A..,Reyer C.P.O..,Gädeke A..,Ciais P..,Chang J..,...&Tian H..(2020).Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems.Environmental Research Letters,15(4).
MLA	Ito A.,et al."Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems".Environmental Research Letters 15.4(2020).