气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Kenyan tea is made with heat and water: How will climate change influence its yield?

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab70be
	Kenyan tea is made with heat and water: How will climate change influence its yield?
	Rigden A.J.; Ongoma V.; Huybers P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:4
英文摘要	Tea is the most consumed beverage in the world apart from water. Climate change is anticipated to affect the tea industry, but quantified large-scale predictions of how temperature and water availability drive tea production is lacking in many regions. Here, we use satellite-derived observations to characterize the response of tea yield to water and heat stress from 2008 to 2016 across Kenya, the third largest producer of tea. We find that solar-induced fluorescence captures the interannual variability in tea yield remarkably well (Pearson's correlation coefficient, r = 0.93), and that these variations are largely driven by the daily dynamics of soil moisture and temperature. Considering rising temperature in isolation suggests that yields in 2040-2070 would decrease by 10% relative to 1990-2020 (ranging between -15% to -4% across 23 models), but most climate models also simulate an increase in soil moisture over this interval that would offset loss, such that yields decrease by only 5% (ranging between -12% to +1%). Our results suggest that adaptation strategies to better conserve soil moisture would help avert damage, but such changes require advanced planning due to the longevity of a tea plant, underscoring the importance of better predicting soil moisture over the coming decades. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Agriculture; Climate change; Soil moisture; Tea yield; Water balance
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Correlation methods; Soil conservation; Soil moisture; Tea; Adaptation strategies; Interannual variability; Large-scale prediction; Pearson's correlation coefficients; Rising temperatures; Satellite-derived observations; Solar-induced fluorescences; Water availability; Climate change; agricultural production; annual variation; climate change; climate effect; crop yield; food industry; prediction; satellite data; soil moisture; soil temperature; tea; water availability; Kenya
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154078
作者单位	Harvard University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 20 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States; School of Geography, Earth Science and Environment, University of the South Pacific, Laucala Campus, Private Bag, Suva, Fiji
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rigden A.J.,Ongoma V.,Huybers P.. Kenyan tea is made with heat and water: How will climate change influence its yield?[J],2020,15(4).
APA	Rigden A.J.,Ongoma V.,&Huybers P..(2020).Kenyan tea is made with heat and water: How will climate change influence its yield?.Environmental Research Letters,15(4).
MLA	Rigden A.J.,et al."Kenyan tea is made with heat and water: How will climate change influence its yield?".Environmental Research Letters 15.4(2020).