气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global rangeland production systems and livelihoods at threat under climate change and variability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab7395
	Global rangeland production systems and livelihoods at threat under climate change and variability
	Godde C.M.; Boone R.B.; Ash A.J.; Waha K.; Sloat L.L.; Thornton P.K.; Herrero M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:4
英文摘要	Rangelands are one of the Earth's major ice-free land cover types. They provide food and support livelihoods for millions of people in addition to delivering important ecosystems services. However, rangelands are at threat from climate change, although the extent and magnitude of the potential impacts are poorly understood. Any declines in vegetation biomass and fluctuations in grazing availability would be of concern for food production and ecosystem integrity and functionality. In this study, we use a global rangeland model in combination with livestock and socio-economic datasets to identify where and to what extent rangeland systems may be at climatic risk. Overall, mean herbaceous biomass is projected to decrease across global rangelands between 2000 and 2050 under RCP 8.5 (-4.7%), while inter-(year-to-year) and intra-(month-to-month) annual variabilities are projected to increase (+21.3% and +8.2%, respectively). These averaged global estimates mask large spatial heterogeneities, with 74% of global rangeland area projected to experience a decline in mean biomass, 64% an increase in inter-annual variability and 54% an increase in intra-annual variability. Half of global rangeland areas are projected to experience simultaneously a decrease in mean biomass and an increase in inter-annual variability-vegetation trends both potentially harmful for livestock production. These regions include notably the Sahel, Australia, Mongolia, China, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and support 376 million people and 174 million ruminant Tropical Livestock Units. Additionally, the rangeland communities currently the most vulnerable (here, with the lowest livestock productivities and economic development levels and with the highest projected increases in human population densities) are projected to also experience the most damaging vegetation trends for livestock production. Although the capacity of rangeland systems to adapt is highly complex, analyses such as these generate some of the information required to inform options to facilitate pastoral system mitigation and adaptation strategies under climate change. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Cattle supplementary material; Climate change; Climate variability; Grasslands; Livestock; Modelling; Vulnerability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Biomass; Economics; Ecosystems; Population statistics; Vegetation; Adaptation strategies; Annual variability; Herbaceous biomass; Interannual variability; Intra-annual variability; Livestock production; Spatial heterogeneity; Vegetation biomass; Climate change; climate change; climate variation; ecosystem service; global perspective; heterogeneity; livelihood; livestock farming; pastoralism; rangeland; socioeconomic status; vulnerability; Australia; Mongolia; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]; Turkmenistan; Uzbekistan; Bos
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154073
作者单位	Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), St Lucia, QLD, Australia; University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, Australia; Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States; Cgiar Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Ilri, Nairobi, Kenya
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Godde C.M.,Boone R.B.,Ash A.J.,et al. Global rangeland production systems and livelihoods at threat under climate change and variability[J],2020,15(4).
APA	Godde C.M..,Boone R.B..,Ash A.J..,Waha K..,Sloat L.L..,...&Herrero M..(2020).Global rangeland production systems and livelihoods at threat under climate change and variability.Environmental Research Letters,15(4).
MLA	Godde C.M.,et al."Global rangeland production systems and livelihoods at threat under climate change and variability".Environmental Research Letters 15.4(2020).