气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Can designs inspired by control theory keep deployment policies effective and cost-efficient as technology prices fall?

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab6fbf
	Can designs inspired by control theory keep deployment policies effective and cost-efficient as technology prices fall?
	Nuñ; ez-Jimenez A.; Knoeri C.; Hoppmann J.; Hoffmann V.H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:4
英文摘要	Deployment policies based on economic incentives are among the most effective tools for speeding up the diffusion of clean energy technologies. Policy instruments such as feed-in tariffs have played a critical role in driving the growth of solar photovoltaics, and could accelerate the uptake of other technologies that are key to the decarbonization of energy systems. Historical experiences, however, show that failing to adjust economic incentives to falling technology prices can fundamentally undermine these policies' effectiveness and cost-efficiency. This paper addresses this challenge by assessing three novel policy designs. Based on control-theory principles, the proposed mechanisms modify incentives in response to changes in deployment, policy costs, or profitability for adopters. We assess the outcomes that each policy design would have achieved when applied to Germany's feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaics between 2000 and 2016. For this purpose, we developed an agent-based model that allows us to simulate the adoption decisions of individual households and medium-sized and large firms, as well as the evolution of technology prices. Our results show that responsive designs inspired by control theory might produce policies that follow their targets more closely, and at a lower cost. In addition, our analysis suggests that the studied designs could greatly reduce uncertainty over policy outcomes and windfall profits. This research also highlights the role of the temporal distribution of policy targets, and identifies policy design tradeoffs, drawing relevant implications for the design of future deployment policies. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Adjustment mechanism; Agent-based model; Clean energy; Deployment policy; Feed-in tariff; Policy design; Solar photovoltaics
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Autonomous agents; Computational methods; Control theory; Profitability; Solar concentrators; Solar power generation; Uncertainty analysis; Clean energy technology; Economic incentive; Evolution of technology; Historical experience; Policy instruments; Responsive designs; Solar photovoltaics; Temporal distribution; Costs; incentive; policy making; profitability; tariff structure; technological development; technology adoption; theoretical study; Germany
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154065
作者单位	Group for Sustainability and Technology, ETH Zurich, Weinbergstrasse 56/58, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland; Chair of Management, University of Oldenburg, Ammerländer Heerstraße, Oldenburg, D-26129, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nuñ,ez-Jimenez A.,Knoeri C.,et al. Can designs inspired by control theory keep deployment policies effective and cost-efficient as technology prices fall?[J],2020,15(4).
APA	Nuñ,ez-Jimenez A.,Knoeri C.,Hoppmann J.,&Hoffmann V.H..(2020).Can designs inspired by control theory keep deployment policies effective and cost-efficient as technology prices fall?.Environmental Research Letters,15(4).
MLA	Nuñ,et al."Can designs inspired by control theory keep deployment policies effective and cost-efficient as technology prices fall?".Environmental Research Letters 15.4(2020).