气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d03
	Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections
	Jiang J.; Zhou T.; Chen X.; Zhang L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:5
英文摘要	A stronger than global mean warming trend is projected over Central Asia in the coming century. Based on the historical simulations and projections under four combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) provided by 15 models from the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show a comprehensive picture of the future changes in precipitation over Central Asia under rapid warming and investigate possible mechanisms. At the end of the twenty-first century, robust increase of annual mean precipitation under all the scenarios is found (4.23 [2.60 to 7.36] %, 10.52 [5.05 to 13.36] %, 14.51 [8.11 to 16.91] %, 14.41 [9.58 to 21.26] % relative to the present-day for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). The response of precipitation to increasing global mean temperature shows similar spatial patterns for the four scenarios with stronger changes over Tianshan mountain and the northern part of Central Asia. Further analysis reveals a wetting trend in spring and a drying trend in summer in both the north of Central Asia (NCA) and south of Central Asia (SCA). The wetting trend in spring is balanced by the increase of evaporation, while the drying trend in summer is mainly contributed by the decrease of vertical moisture advection. The thermodynamic effects associated with humidity changes contribute to the drying trends in both the two domains, while the dynamic effects favor for the drying trend in NCA and offset the drying trend in SCA. The response of precipitation to increasing temperature results in enhanced seasonalities for SCA and NCA, and an advancing of the first peak from summer to spring in the NCA. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Wetting; Annual mean precipitation; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Global mean warming; Global-mean temperature; Historical simulation; Increasing temperatures; Possible mechanisms; Thermodynamic effect; Drying; CMIP; precipitation (climatology); seasonality; summer; thermodynamics; twenty first century; wetting; Central Asia
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154027
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, 100101, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jiang J.,Zhou T.,Chen X.,et al. Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections[J],2020,15(5).
APA	Jiang J.,Zhou T.,Chen X.,&Zhang L..(2020).Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections.Environmental Research Letters,15(5).
MLA	Jiang J.,et al."Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections".Environmental Research Letters 15.5(2020).