气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d02
	Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades
	Maher N.; Lehner F.; Marotzke J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:5
英文摘要	On short (15-year) to mid-term (30-year) time-scales how the Earth's surface temperature evolves can be dominated by internal variability as demonstrated by the global-warming pause or 'hiatus'. In this study, we use six single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to visualise the role of internal variability in controlling possible observable surface temperature trends in the short-term and mid-term projections from 2019 onwards. We confirm that in the short-term, surface temperature trend projections are dominated by internal variability, with little influence of structural model differences or warming pathway. Additionally we demonstrate that this result is independent of the model-dependent estimate of the magnitude of internal variability. Indeed, and perhaps counter intuitively, in all models a lack of warming, or even a cooling trend could be observed at all individual points on the globe, even under the largest greenhouse gas emissions. The near-equivalence of all six SMILEs and CMIP5 demonstrates the robustness of this result to the choice of models used. On the mid-term time-scale, we confirm that structural model differences and scenario uncertainties play a larger role in controlling surface temperature trend projections than they did on the shorter time-scale. In addition we show that whether internal variability still dominates, or whether model uncertainties and internal variability are a similar magnitude, depends on the estimate of internal variability, which differs between the SMILEs. Finally we show that even out to thirty years large parts of the globe (or most of the globe in MPI-GE and CMIP5) could still experience no-warming due to internal variability. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	internal variability; large ensembles; mid-term projections; model differences; short-term projections; SMILEs; surface temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Climate models; Gas emissions; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Surface properties; Time measurement; Cooling trends; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Earth's surface; Internal variability; Model uncertainties; Single models; Structural modeling; Surface temperatures; Uncertainty analysis; air temperature; climate change; climate modeling; CMIP; ensemble forecasting; future prospect; global warming; hiatus; quantitative analysis; soil temperature
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154026
作者单位	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Maher N.,Lehner F.,Marotzke J.. Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades[J],2020,15(5).
APA	Maher N.,Lehner F.,&Marotzke J..(2020).Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades.Environmental Research Letters,15(5).
MLA	Maher N.,et al."Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades".Environmental Research Letters 15.5(2020).