气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A tale of two futures: Contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab7fde
	A tale of two futures: Contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models
	Dosio A.; Turner A.G.; Tamoffo A.T.; Sylla M.B.; Lennard C.; Jones R.G.; Terray L.; Nikulin G.; Hewitson B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:6
英文摘要	The results of a large ensemble of regional climate models lead to two contrasting but plausible scenarios for the precipitation change over West Africa, one where mean precipitation is projected to decrease significantly over the Gulf of Guinea in spring and the Sahel in summer, and the other where summer precipitation over both regions is projected to increase. Dry and wet models show similar patterns of the dynamic and thermodynamic terms of the moisture budget, although their magnitudes are larger in the dry models. The largest discrepancies are found in the strength of the land-atmosphere coupling, with dry models showing a marked decrease in soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Some changes in precipitation characteristics are consistent for both sets of models. In particular, precipitation frequency is projected to decrease in spring over the Gulf of Guinea and in summer over the Sahel, but precipitation is projected to become more intense. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	CORDEX; moisture budget equation; regional climate models; Sahel; West Africa
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Budget control; Climate change; Soil moisture; Land-atmosphere couplings; Mean precipitation; Moisture budget; Precipitation change; Precipitation characteristics; Precipitation frequency; Regional climate models; Summer precipitation; Climate models; air-soil interaction; climate modeling; evapotranspiration; future prospect; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; seasonal variation; soil moisture; Atlantic Ocean; Gulf of Guinea; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]; West Africa
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154014
作者单位	European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom; Laboratory for Environmental Modelling and Atmospheric Physics (LEMAP), Department of Physics, University of Yaounde 1, Yaounde, Cameroon; African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), Kigali, Rwanda; Climate System Analysis Group University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; CECI, CNRS, CERFACS, Toulouse, France; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dosio A.,Turner A.G.,Tamoffo A.T.,et al. A tale of two futures: Contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models[J],2020,15(6).
APA	Dosio A..,Turner A.G..,Tamoffo A.T..,Sylla M.B..,Lennard C..,...&Hewitson B..(2020).A tale of two futures: Contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models.Environmental Research Letters,15(6).
MLA	Dosio A.,et al."A tale of two futures: Contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models".Environmental Research Letters 15.6(2020).