气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Human influence on frequency of temperature extremes

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab8497
	Human influence on frequency of temperature extremes
	Hu T.; Sun Y.; Zhang X.; Min S.-K.; Kim Y.-H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:6
英文摘要	We investigate the influence of external forcings on the frequency of temperature extremes over land at the global and continental scales by comparing HadEX3 observations and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Programme Phase 6 (CMIP6) project. We consider four metrics including warm days and nights (TX90p and TN90p) and cold days and nights (TX10p and TN10p). The observational dataset during 1951-2018 shows continued increases in the warm days and nights and decreases in the cold days and nights in most land areas in the years after 2010. The area of the so-called 'warming hole' in North America is much reduced in 1951-2018 compared with that in 1951-2010. The comparison between observation and simulations based on an optimal fingerprinting method shows that the anthropogenic forcing, dominated by greenhouse gases, plays the most important role in the changes of the frequency indices. Changes in CMIP6 multi-model mean response to all forcing need to be scaled down to best match the observations, indicating that the multi-model ensemble mean may have overestimated the observed changes. Analyses that involve signals from anthropogenic and natural external forcings confirm that the anthropogenic signal can be detected over global land as a whole and for most continents in all temperature indices. Analyses that include signals from greenhouse gas (GHG), anthropogenic aerosol (AA) and natural external (NAT) forcings show that the GHG signal is detected in all indices over the globe and most continents while the AA signal can be detected mainly in the warm extremes but not the cold extremes over the globe and most continents. The effect of NAT is negligible in most land areas. GHG's warming effect is offset partially by AA's cooling effect. The combined effects from both explain most of the observed changes over the globe and continents. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	anthropogenic forcing; CMIP6 models; detection and attribution; HadEX3 dataset; natural forcing; temperature extremes
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Greenhouse gases; Anthropogenic aerosols; Anthropogenic forcing; Anthropogenic signals; Greenhouse gas (GHG); Multi-model ensemble; Optimal fingerprinting; Temperature extremes; Temperature index; Signal detection; aerosol; anthropogenic effect; climate forcing; CMIP; data set; extreme event; greenhouse gas; high temperature; human activity; warming; North America
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154000
作者单位	National Climate Center, Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON M3H5T4, Canada; Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hu T.,Sun Y.,Zhang X.,et al. Human influence on frequency of temperature extremes[J],2020,15(6).
APA	Hu T.,Sun Y.,Zhang X.,Min S.-K.,&Kim Y.-H..(2020).Human influence on frequency of temperature extremes.Environmental Research Letters,15(6).
MLA	Hu T.,et al."Human influence on frequency of temperature extremes".Environmental Research Letters 15.6(2020).