气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The world's growing municipal solid waste: trends and impacts

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab8659
	The world's growing municipal solid waste: trends and impacts
	Chen D.M.-C.; Bodirsky B.L.; Krueger T.; Mishra A.; Popp A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:7
英文摘要	Global municipal waste production causes multiple environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions, ocean plastic accumulation, and nitrogen pollution. However, estimates of both past and future development of waste and pollution are scarce. We apply compositional Bayesian regression to produce the first estimates of past and future (1965-2100) waste generation disaggregated by composition and treatment, along with resultant environmental impacts, for every country. We find that total wastes grow at declining speed with economic development, and that global waste generation has increased from 635 Mt in 1965 to 1999 Mt in 2015 and reaches 3539 Mt by 2050 (median values, middle-of-the-road scenario). From 2015 to 2050, the global share of organic waste declines from 47% to 39%, while all other waste type shares increase, especially paper. The share of waste treated in dumps declines from 28% to 18%, and more sustainable recycling, composting, and energy recovery treatments increase. Despite these increases, we estimate environmental loads to continue increasing in the future, although yearly plastic waste input into the oceans has reached a peak. Waste production does not appear to follow the environmental Kuznets curve, and current projections do not meet UN SDGs for waste reduction. Our study shows that a continuation of current trends and improvements is insufficient to reduce pressures on natural systems and achieve a circular economy. Relative to 2015, the amount of recycled waste would need to increase from 363 Mt to 740 Mt by 2030 to begin reducing unsustainable waste generation, compared to 519 Mt currently projected. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	circular economy; compositional data; environmental impacts of waste; global future projections; municipal solid waste
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Economics; Gas emissions; Greenhouse gases; Plastic recycling; Plastics industry; Pollution; Waste treatment; Bayesian regression; Circular economy; Environmental Kuznets curves; Environmental loads; Natural systems; Nitrogen pollution; Waste generation; Waste production; Municipal solid waste; economic development; environmental impact; greenhouse gas; Kuznets curve; municipal solid waste; plastic waste; recycling
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153967
作者单位	Albrecht-Thaer-Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, D-14412, Germany; IRI THESys, Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen D.M.-C.,Bodirsky B.L.,Krueger T.,et al. The world's growing municipal solid waste: trends and impacts[J],2020,15(7).
APA	Chen D.M.-C.,Bodirsky B.L.,Krueger T.,Mishra A.,&Popp A..(2020).The world's growing municipal solid waste: trends and impacts.Environmental Research Letters,15(7).
MLA	Chen D.M.-C.,et al."The world's growing municipal solid waste: trends and impacts".Environmental Research Letters 15.7(2020).