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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab8336
	Adaptation time to magnified flood hazards underestimated when derived from tide gauge records
	Lambert E.; Rohmer J.; Le Cozannet G.; Van De Wal R.S.W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:7
英文摘要	Sea-level rise magnifies flood hazards, raising the question when adaptation measures need to be taken. Here, we quantify when the recurrence of extreme water level events will double due to projected sea-level rise. Reproducing the most common method based on extreme water levels observed with tide gauges, at least one third of the coastal locations are to expect a doubling of extremes within a decade. However, tide gauges are commonly placed in wave-sheltered harbours where the contribution of waves to water levels is much smaller than at nearby wave-exposed coastlines such as beaches and dikes. In this study, we quantify doubling times at a variety of idealised shorelines based on modelled tides, storm surges and waves. We apply an extreme value analysis that accounts for the joint probability of extreme storm surges and extreme waves. Our results indicate that doubling times at wave-exposed shorelines are longer than those in wave-sheltered harbours, allowing for more time to adapt to magnified flood hazards. The median doubling times of average water levels including parameterised wave set-up are 1.2 to 5 times longer than those of still water levels as observed with tide gauges. For instantaneous water levels including wave run-up, doubling times are an additional 30% to 100% longer. We conclude that tide gauge-based analyses underestimate adaptation times by underestimating the contribution of waves to extreme water levels, and provide a quantitative framework to guide adaptation policy at wave-exposed shorelines. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	coastal adaptation; extreme water level; joint probability; Sea-level rise; waves
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Floods; Hazards; Ocean currents; Sea level; Storms; Water levels; Adaptation policies; Adaptation time; Coastal locations; Extreme value analysis; Joint probability; Quantitative frameworks; Sea level rise; Still water levels; Tide gages; adaptive management; coastal protection; extreme event; flooding; probability; sea level change; storm surge; tide gauge; water level
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153951
作者单位	Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; BRGM, French Geological Survey, Orléans, France; Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Princetonplein 5, Utrecht, 3584 CC, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lambert E.,Rohmer J.,Le Cozannet G.,et al. Adaptation time to magnified flood hazards underestimated when derived from tide gauge records[J],2020,15(7).
APA	Lambert E.,Rohmer J.,Le Cozannet G.,&Van De Wal R.S.W..(2020).Adaptation time to magnified flood hazards underestimated when derived from tide gauge records.Environmental Research Letters,15(7).
MLA	Lambert E.,et al."Adaptation time to magnified flood hazards underestimated when derived from tide gauge records".Environmental Research Letters 15.7(2020).