气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Implications of non-linearities between cumulative CO2emissions and CO2-induced warming for assessing the remaining carbon budget

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab83af
	Implications of non-linearities between cumulative CO2emissions and CO2-induced warming for assessing the remaining carbon budget
	Nicholls Z.R.J.; Gieseke R.; Lewis J.; Nauels A.; Meinshausen M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:7
英文摘要	To determine the remaining carbon budget, a new framework was introduced in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR1.5). We refer to this as a 'segmented' framework because it considers the various components of the carbon budget derivation independently from one another. Whilst implementing this segmented framework, in SR1.5 the assumption was that there is a strictly linear relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and CO2-induced warming i.e. the TCRE is constant and can be applied to a range of emissions scenarios. Here we test whether such an approach is able to replicate results from model simulations that take the climate system's internal feedbacks and non-linearities into account. Within our modelling framework, following the SR1.5's choices leads to smaller carbon budgets than using simulations with interacting climate components. For 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming targets, the differences are 50 GtCO2 (or 10%) and 260 GtCO2 (or 17%), respectively. However, by relaxing the assumption of strict linearity, we find that this difference can be reduced to around 0 GtCO2 for 1.5 °C of warming and 80 GtCO2 (or 5%) for 2.0 °C of warming (for middle of the range estimates of the carbon cycle and warming response to anthropogenic emissions). We propose an updated implementation of the segmented framework that allows for the consideration of non-linearities between cumulative CO2 emissions and CO2-induced warming. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate change; global warming; IPCC; peak temperature; remaining carbon budget
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Climate models; Global warming; Anthropogenic emissions; Emissions scenarios; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes; Internal feedback; Linear relationships; Model simulation; Modelling framework; Range estimates; Budget control; assessment method; carbon budget; carbon emission; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153949
作者单位	Australian-German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nicholls Z.R.J.,Gieseke R.,Lewis J.,et al. Implications of non-linearities between cumulative CO2emissions and CO2-induced warming for assessing the remaining carbon budget[J],2020,15(7).
APA	Nicholls Z.R.J.,Gieseke R.,Lewis J.,Nauels A.,&Meinshausen M..(2020).Implications of non-linearities between cumulative CO2emissions and CO2-induced warming for assessing the remaining carbon budget.Environmental Research Letters,15(7).
MLA	Nicholls Z.R.J.,et al."Implications of non-linearities between cumulative CO2emissions and CO2-induced warming for assessing the remaining carbon budget".Environmental Research Letters 15.7(2020).