气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab858a
	Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets
	Jones C.D.; Friedlingstein P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:7
英文摘要	To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement requires deep and rapid reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but uncertainty surrounds the magnitude and depth of reductions. Earth system models provide a means to quantify the link from emissions to global climate change. Using the concept of TCRE - the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions - we can estimate the remaining carbon budget to achieve 1.5 or 2 °C. But the uncertainty is large, and this hinders the usefulness of the concept. Uncertainty in carbon budgets associated with a given global temperature rise is determined by the physical Earth system, and therefore Earth system modelling has a clear and high priority remit to address and reduce this uncertainty. Here we explore multi-model carbon cycle simulations across three generations of Earth system models to quantitatively assess the sources of uncertainty which propagate through to TCRE. Our analysis brings new insights which will allow us to determine how we can better direct our research priorities in order to reduce this uncertainty. We emphasise that uses of carbon budget estimates must bear in mind the uncertainty stemming from the biogeophysical Earth system, and we recommend specific areas where the carbon cycle research community needs to re-focus activity in order to try to reduce this uncertainty. We conclude that we should revise focus from the climate feedback on the carbon cycle to place more emphasis on CO2 as the main driver of carbon sinks and their long-term behaviour. Our proposed framework will enable multiple constraints on components of the carbon cycle to propagate to constraints on remaining carbon budgets. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	carbon budgets; carbon cycle feedbacks; constraints; research priorities
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Budget control; Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Climate change; Climate models; Earth (planet); Global climate changes; Global temperatures; Long term behaviours; Multiple constraint; Research communities; Research priorities; Sources of uncertainty; Uncertainty contributions; Uncertainty analysis; anthropogenic effect; carbon budget; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; carbon sink; climate change; climate modeling; quantitative analysis; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153947
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, United Kingdom; Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X, Paris, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jones C.D.,Friedlingstein P.. Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets[J],2020,15(7).
APA	Jones C.D.,&Friedlingstein P..(2020).Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets.Environmental Research Letters,15(7).
MLA	Jones C.D.,et al."Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets".Environmental Research Letters 15.7(2020).