气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab926f
	Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming
	Guo D.; Sun J.; Li H.; Zhang T.; Romanovsky V.E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:8
英文摘要	Given the current confirmed permafrost degradation and its considerable impacts on ecosystems, water resources, infrastructure and climate, there is great interest in understanding the causes of permafrost degradation. Using the surface frost index (SFI) model and multimodel data from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study, for the first time, investigates external anthropogenic and natural forcing impacts on historical (1921-2005) near-surface permafrost change in the Northern Hemisphere. The results show that anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing produces a significant decrease in the area of near-surface permafrost distribution at a rate of 0.46 × 106 km2 decade-1, similar to observations and the historical simulation (ALL). Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing yields an increase in near-surface permafrost distribution area at a rate of 0.25 × 106 km2 decade-1. Under natural (NAT) forcing, there is a weak trend and distinct decadal variability in near-surface permafrost area. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings are detectable in the observed change in historical near-surface permafrost area, but the effects of NAT and AA forcings are not detected using the optimal fingerprint methods. This indicates that the observed near-surface permafrost degradation can be largely attributed to GHG-induced warming, which has decreased the near-surface permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere by approximately 0. 21 × 106 km2 decade-1 on average over the study period, according to the attribution analysis. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	air temperature; anthropogenic forcing; natural forcing; permafrost
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Greenhouse gases; Water resources; Anthropogenic aerosols; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Decadal variability; Greenhouse gas (GHG); Historical simulation; Northern Hemispheres; Permafrost degradation; Permafrost distribution; Permafrost; anthropogenic effect; climate forcing; CMIP; global warming; greenhouse gas; land surface; Northern Hemisphere; permafrost
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153916
作者单位	Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems, Ministry of Education, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China; Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo D.,Sun J.,Li H.,et al. Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming[J],2020,15(8).
APA	Guo D.,Sun J.,Li H.,Zhang T.,&Romanovsky V.E..(2020).Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming.Environmental Research Letters,15(8).
MLA	Guo D.,et al."Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming".Environmental Research Letters 15.8(2020).