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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab858e
	Fingerprints of external forcings on Sahel rainfall: Aerosols, greenhouse gases, and model-observation discrepancies
	Marvel K.; Biasutti M.; Bonfils C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:8
英文摘要	Over the 20th and 21st centuries, both anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases and changes in anthropogenic aerosols have affected rainfall in the Sahel. Using multiple characteristics of Sahel precipitation, we construct a multivariate fingerprint that allows us to distinguish between the model-predicted responses to greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Models project the emergence of a detectable signal of aerosol forcing in the middle of the 20th century and a detectable signal of greenhouse gas forcing at the beginning of the 21st. However, the signals of both aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing in observations emerge earlier and are stronger than in the models, far stronger in the case of aerosols. The similarity between the response to aerosol forcing and the leading mode of internal variability makes it difficult to attribute this model-observation discrepancy to errors in the forcing, errors in the forced response, model inability to capture the amplitude of internal variability, or some combination of these. For greenhouse gases, however, the forced response is distinct from internal variability as estimated by models, and the observations are largely commensurate with the model projections. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	aerosols; detection and attribution; greenhouse gases; precipitation; Sahel
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Greenhouse gases; Rain; Signal detection; 20th century; Aerosol forcing; Anthropogenic aerosols; Detectable signal; Forced response; Greenhouse-gas forcing; Internal variability; Multiple characteristics; Aerosols; aerosol; atmospheric forcing; discriminant analysis; greenhouse gas; observational method; rainfall; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153861
作者单位	NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Department of Applied Mathematics and Applied Physics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marvel K.,Biasutti M.,Bonfils C.. Fingerprints of external forcings on Sahel rainfall: Aerosols, greenhouse gases, and model-observation discrepancies[J],2020,15(8).
APA	Marvel K.,Biasutti M.,&Bonfils C..(2020).Fingerprints of external forcings on Sahel rainfall: Aerosols, greenhouse gases, and model-observation discrepancies.Environmental Research Letters,15(8).
MLA	Marvel K.,et al."Fingerprints of external forcings on Sahel rainfall: Aerosols, greenhouse gases, and model-observation discrepancies".Environmental Research Letters 15.8(2020).