气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Long-term precipitation in Southwestern Europe reveals no clear trend attributable to anthropogenic forcing

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab9c4f
	Long-term precipitation in Southwestern Europe reveals no clear trend attributable to anthropogenic forcing
	Peña-Angulo D.; Vicente-Serrano S.M.; Domínguez-Castro F.; Murphy C.; Reig F.; Tramblay Y.; Trigo R.M.; Luna M.Y.; Turco M.; Noguera I.; Aznárez-Balta M.; García-Herrera R.; Tomas-Burguera M.; El Kenawy A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	We present a long-term assessment of precipitation trends in Southwestern Europe (1850-2018) using data from multiple sources, including observations, gridded datasets and global climate model experiments. Contrary to previous investigations based on shorter records, we demonstrate, using new long-term, quality controlled precipitation series, the lack of statistically significant long-term decreasing trends in precipitation for the region. Rather, significant trends were mostly found for shorter periods, highlighting the prevalence of interdecadal and interannual variability at these time-scales. Global climate model outputs from three CMIP experiments are evaluated for periods concurrent with observations. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles show precipitation decline, with only CMIP6 showing agreement with long term trends in observations. However, for both CMIP3 and CMIP5 large interannual and internal variability among ensemble members makes it difficult to identify a trend that is statistically different from observations. Across both observations and models, our results make it difficult to associate any declining trends in precipitation in Southwestern Europe to anthropogenic forcing at this stage. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	anthropogenic forcing; global climate model; precipitation; Southwestern Europe; trends
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Quality control; Anthropogenic forcing; Controlled precipitation; Ensemble members; Global climate model; Interannual variability; Internal variability; Precipitation trends; Southwestern europe; Climate models; annual variation; anthropogenic effect; climate modeling; CMIP; global climate; precipitation (climatology); spatiotemporal analysis; Europe
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153837
作者单位	Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC), Zaragoza, Spain; Aragonese Agency for Research and Development Researcher (ARAID), Zaragoza, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain; Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland; HSM, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France; Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal; Departamento de Meteorologia, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, Brazil; Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET), Madrid, Spain; Regional Atmospheric Modeling Group, Department of Physics, University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain; Department of Geography, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt; Department of Geography, Sultan Qaboos University, Al Khoud, Muscat, Oman; Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Facultad de Ciencias F...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Peña-Angulo D.,Vicente-Serrano S.M.,Domínguez-Castro F.,et al. Long-term precipitation in Southwestern Europe reveals no clear trend attributable to anthropogenic forcing[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Peña-Angulo D..,Vicente-Serrano S.M..,Domínguez-Castro F..,Murphy C..,Reig F..,...&El Kenawy A..(2020).Long-term precipitation in Southwestern Europe reveals no clear trend attributable to anthropogenic forcing.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Peña-Angulo D.,et al."Long-term precipitation in Southwestern Europe reveals no clear trend attributable to anthropogenic forcing".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).