气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7
	Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California
	Goss M.; Swain D.L.; Abatzoglou J.T.; Sarhadi A.; Kolden C.A.; Williams A.P.; Diffenbaugh N.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	California has experienced devastating autumn wildfires in recent years. These autumn wildfires have coincided with extreme fire weather conditions during periods of strong offshore winds coincident with unusually dry vegetation enabled by anomalously warm conditions and late onset of autumn precipitation. In this study, we quantify observed changes in the occurrence and magnitude of meteorological factors that enable extreme autumn wildfires in California, and use climate model simulations to ascertain whether these changes are attributable to human-caused climate change. We show that state-wide increases in autumn temperature (∼1 C) and decreases in autumn precipitation (∼30%) over the past four decades have contributed to increases in aggregate fire weather indices (+20%). As a result, the observed frequency of autumn days with extreme (95th percentile) fire weather - which we show are preferentially associated with extreme autumn wildfires - has more than doubled in California since the early 1980s. We further find an increase in the climate model-estimated probability of these extreme autumn conditions since ∼1950, including a long-term trend toward increased same-season co-occurrence of extreme fire weather conditions in northern and southern California. Our climate model analyses suggest that continued climate change will further amplify the number of days with extreme fire weather by the end of this century, though a pathway consistent with the UN Paris commitments would substantially curb that increase. Given the acute societal impacts of extreme autumn wildfires in recent years, our findings have critical relevance for ongoing efforts to manage wildfire risks in California and other regions. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	attribution; California; climate change; CMIP5; global warming; wildfires
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Fires; Offshore oil well production; Autumn precipitation; Climate model simulations; Fire weather index; Long-term trend; Meteorological factors; Societal impacts; Southern California; Warm conditions; Climate change; autumn; climate change; climate conditions; climate modeling; extreme event; maximum likelihood analysis; precipitation (climatology); vegetation cover; wildfire; California; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153834
作者单位	Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Nature Conservancy of California, San Francisco, CA, United States; Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Management of Complex Systems Department, University of California, Merced, CA, United States; Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, United States; College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Goss M.,Swain D.L.,Abatzoglou J.T.,et al. Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Goss M..,Swain D.L..,Abatzoglou J.T..,Sarhadi A..,Kolden C.A..,...&Diffenbaugh N.S..(2020).Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Goss M.,et al."Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).