Climate Change Data Portal
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab94e9 |
| Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa | |
| Young M.; Heinrich V.; Black E.; Asfaw D. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 17489318 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:9 |
| 英文摘要 | The availability of seasonal weather forecast information in Africa has potential to provide advanced early warning of rainfall variability, informing preparedness actions to minimise adverse impacts. Obtaining accurate forecast information for the spatial scales at which decisions are made is vital. Here we examine the impact of spatial scales on the utility of seasonal rainfall forecasts in Africa. Using observations alongside seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we combine measures of local representativity and skill to assess optimal spatial scales for anticipating local rainfall conditions. The results reveal regions where spatial aggregation of gridded forecast data improves the quality of information provided at the local scale, and regions where forecasts have useful skill without aggregation. More generally this study presents a novel approach for evaluating the utility of forecast information which is applicable both globally and at all timescales. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. |
| 英文关键词 | africa; drought monitoring; early warning; rainfall; seasonal forecasts |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | Rain; European centre for medium-range weather forecasts; Forecast information; Quality of information; Rainfall condition; Rainfall variability; Seasonal forecasts; Seasonal rainfall; Spatial aggregation; Weather forecasting; optimization; precipitation assessment; precipitation intensity; seasonality; spatial analysis; spatial variation; weather forecasting; Africa |
| 来源期刊 | Environmental Research Letters
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153821 |
| 作者单位 | Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Young M.,Heinrich V.,Black E.,et al. Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa[J],2020,15(9). |
| APA | Young M.,Heinrich V.,Black E.,&Asfaw D..(2020).Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa.Environmental Research Letters,15(9). |
| MLA | Young M.,et al."Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
