气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Enhanced mid-to-late winter predictability of the storm track variability in the North Pacific as a contrast with the North Atlantic

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab9c4d
	Enhanced mid-to-late winter predictability of the storm track variability in the North Pacific as a contrast with the North Atlantic
	Nie Y.; Ren H.-L.; Scaife A.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	The storm tracks are a major driver of regional extreme weather events. Using the daily output of reanalysis and a latest generation ensemble seasonal forecasting system, this study examines the interannual variability and predictability of the boreal winter storm tracks in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. In both basins, the leading mode of storm track variability describes a latitudinal shifting of the climatological storm tracks. The shifting mode is closely connected with the extratropical large-scale teleconnection patterns (i.e. Pacific-North America teleconnection and North Atlantic Oscillation). The main predictability source for the shifting mode of the North Pacific storm tracks are the ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies. Assessment of the seasonal prediction skill further shows that the shifting mode of the North Pacific storm tracks is in general better predicted than that of the North Atlantic storm tracks likely due to stronger ENSO effects. Our analyses also find that, through the modulations of ENSO and the subtropical jet, the shifting mode of the North Pacific storm tracks exhibit a mid-to-late winter predictability enhancement. During El Nio phases, the North Pacific subtropical jet shifts equatorward and becomes strongest in mid-to-late winter, which dominates the upper-level flow and guides the storm track most equatorward. We argue that the intensification and equatorward shift of the North Pacific subtropical jet in mid-to-late winter of El Nio years provide the main reason for the increased mid-to-late winter predictability for the storm tracks. The results imply that good representation of the background subtropical jet in models is important for winter climate prediction of storm tracks. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	ENSO; GloSea5; Storm tracks; Subtropical jet; Winter predictability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climate models; Climatology; Oceanography; Storms; Surface waters; Tropics; Extreme weather events; Interannual variability; North Atlantic oscillations; Pacific-north america; Sea surface temperature anomalies; Seasonal forecasting; Seasonal prediction; Teleconnection patterns; Weather forecasting; air-sea interaction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; prediction; seasonal variation; storm track; winter; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153798
作者单位	Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geoscience, Wuhan, China; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nie Y.,Ren H.-L.,Scaife A.A.. Enhanced mid-to-late winter predictability of the storm track variability in the North Pacific as a contrast with the North Atlantic[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Nie Y.,Ren H.-L.,&Scaife A.A..(2020).Enhanced mid-to-late winter predictability of the storm track variability in the North Pacific as a contrast with the North Atlantic.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Nie Y.,et al."Enhanced mid-to-late winter predictability of the storm track variability in the North Pacific as a contrast with the North Atlantic".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).