气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab9388
	Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture
	Beltran-Pea A.; Rosa L.; D'Odorico P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	Meeting the increasing global demand for agricultural products without depleting the limited resources of the planet is a major challenge that humanity is facing. Most studies on global food security do not make projections past the year 2050, just as climate change and increasing demand for food are expected to intensify. Moreover, past studies do not account for the water sustainability limits of irrigation expansion to presently rainfed areas. Here we perform an integrated assessment that considers a range of factors affecting future food production and demand throughout the 21st century. We evaluate the self-sufficiency of 165 countries under sustainability, middle-of-the-road, and business-as-usual scenarios considering changes in diet, population, agricultural intensification, and climate. We find that under both the middle-of-the-road and business-as-usual trajectories global food self-sufficiency is likely to decline despite increased food production through sustainable agricultural intensification since projected food demand exceeds potential production. Contrarily, under a sustainability scenario, we estimate that there will be enough food production to feed the global population. However, most countries in Africa and the Middle East will continue to be heavily reliant on imports throughout the 21st century under all scenarios. These results highlight future hotspots of crop production deficits, reliance on food imports, and vulnerability to food supply shocks. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agricultural products; Agricultural robots; Cultivation; Food supply; Roads and streets; Sustainable development; Agricultural intensification; Global food security; Global population; Integrated assessment; Irrigation expansions; Potential production; Sustainable agricultural; Water sustainability; Climate change; agricultural intensification; alternative agriculture; global change; self sufficiency; twenty first century
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153771
作者单位	Department of Environmental Science Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Beltran-Pea A.,Rosa L.,D'Odorico P.. Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Beltran-Pea A.,Rosa L.,&D'Odorico P..(2020).Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Beltran-Pea A.,et al."Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).