气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab96d3
	Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios
	Fofrich R.; Tong D.; Calvin K.; De Boer H.S.; Emmerling J.; Fricko O.; Fujimori S.; Luderer G.; Rogelj J.; Davis S.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and - unlike the IAMs themselves - we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e. keeping global warming well-below 2 C or 1.5 C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO2 of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2 C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon dioxide; Coal; Electric power utilization; Global warming; Natural gasoline plants; Climate mitigations; Coal-fired power plant; Dangerous climate changes; Electric power sector; Electricity demands; Integrated assessment models; Natural gas fired power plants; Power infrastructures; Fossil fuel power plants; climate change; environmental impact assessment; mitigation; power plant; scenario analysis
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153767
作者单位	Department of Earth System Science, University of California at Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AV The Hague, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Via Bergognone 34Milan, Italy; Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, 2361, Austria; Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan; Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Nishikyo-ku, Japan; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany; Chair of Global Energy Systems, Technisc...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fofrich R.,Tong D.,Calvin K.,et al. Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Fofrich R..,Tong D..,Calvin K..,De Boer H.S..,Emmerling J..,...&Davis S.J..(2020).Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Fofrich R.,et al."Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).