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| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9f7d |
| Skilful interannual climate prediction from two large initialised model ensembles | |
| Dunstone N.; Smith D.; Yeager S.; Danabasoglu G.; Monerie P.-A.; Hermanson L.; Eade R.; Ineson S.; Robson J.; Scaife A.; Ren H.-L. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 17489318 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:9 |
| 英文摘要 | Climate prediction skill on the interannual timescale, which sits between that of seasonal and decadal, is investigated using large ensembles from the Met Office and CESM initialised coupled prediction systems. A key goal is to determine what can be skillfully predicted about the coming year when combining these two ensembles together. Annual surface temperature predictions show good skill at both global and regional scales, but skill diminishes when the trend associated with global warming is removed. Skill for the extended boreal summer (months 7-11) and winter (months 12-16) seasons are examined, focusing on circulation and rainfall predictions. Skill in predicting rainfall in tropical monsoon regions is found to be significant for the majority of regions examined. Skill increases for all regions when active ENSO seasons are forecast. There is some regional skill for predicting extratropical circulation, but predictive signals appear to be spuriously weak. © 2020 Crown copyright. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office. |
| 英文关键词 | climate prediction; global temperature; interannual; large ensemble; monsoon prediction |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | Climate models; Global warming; Rain; Climate prediction; Extratropical circulation; Model ensembles; Prediction systems; Predictive signals; Rainfall prediction; Surface temperature prediction; Tropical monsoon; Forecasting; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; extratropical environment; global warming; regional development; surface temperature |
| 来源期刊 | Environmental Research Letters
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153763 |
| 作者单位 | Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Laboratory for Climate Studies and CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China; Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dunstone N.,Smith D.,Yeager S.,et al. Skilful interannual climate prediction from two large initialised model ensembles[J],2020,15(9). |
| APA | Dunstone N..,Smith D..,Yeager S..,Danabasoglu G..,Monerie P.-A..,...&Ren H.-L..(2020).Skilful interannual climate prediction from two large initialised model ensembles.Environmental Research Letters,15(9). |
| MLA | Dunstone N.,et al."Skilful interannual climate prediction from two large initialised model ensembles".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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