气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A statistical approach towards defining national-scale meteorological droughts in India using crop data

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/abacfa
	A statistical approach towards defining national-scale meteorological droughts in India using crop data
	Udmale P.; Ichikawa Y.; Ning S.; Shrestha S.; Pal I.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	In recent years, several drought indices have been developed and used to monitor local to regional scale droughts on various temporal scales. However, to our knowledge, these indices do not possess generalized criteria to define a threshold in which to declare a national-scale drought. We present a statistical methodology to identify national-scale meteorological drought years in India. We implement a Superposed Epoch Analysis and bootstrap analysis to estimate annual cereal crop production losses as a result of widespread meteorological drought events. For this purpose, the meteorological definition of drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), in combination with the country's cropland area and cereal crops production, is used. The results demonstrate that a national-scale meteorological drought is defined if approximately 19% or more of India's cropland is affected by meteorological drought (SPI3 and SPEI3 equal to or less than -1.00) throughout the monsoon season (June-September). According to this analysis, depending on the indicator data used, a total of 18to 20 national-scale meteorological droughts were identified in India during 1964-2015, causing a 3.61% to 3.93% composite decrease in cereal crops production. The years which were commonly identified as national scale meteorological droughts over cropland by using different approaches are 1965, 1972, 1987, 2002, and 2009. A similar statistical approach can also be used to define drought thresholds at various spatial scales using the drought indices most applicable to the purpose and scale of study. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	bootstrap analysis; cereal production; national-scale meteorological droughts; standardized precipitation index; superposed epoch analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Crops; Cultivation; Statistical methods; Composite decrease; Drought indices; Drought thresholds; Meteorological drought; Standardized precipitation index; Statistical approach; Statistical methodologies; Superposed-epoch analysis; Drought; bootstrapping; crop production; drought; monsoon; threshold; India
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153762
作者单位	Department of Development and Sustainability, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani, 12120, Thailand; Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, C1, Kyoto-Daigaku-Katsura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto, 615-8540, Japan; School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, 230009, China; Water Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani, 12120, Thailand; Disaster Preparedness, Mitigation and Management, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani, 12120, Thailand
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Udmale P.,Ichikawa Y.,Ning S.,et al. A statistical approach towards defining national-scale meteorological droughts in India using crop data[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Udmale P.,Ichikawa Y.,Ning S.,Shrestha S.,&Pal I..(2020).A statistical approach towards defining national-scale meteorological droughts in India using crop data.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Udmale P.,et al."A statistical approach towards defining national-scale meteorological droughts in India using crop data".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).