气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Enhancing the fire weather index with atmospheric instability information

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e22
	Enhancing the fire weather index with atmospheric instability information
	Pinto M.M.; Dacamara C.C.; Hurduc A.; Trigo R.M.; Trigo I.F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	The Fire Weather Index (FWI) is widely used to assess the meteorological fire danger in several ecosystems worldwide. One shortcoming of the FWI is that only surface weather conditions are considered, despite the important role often played by atmospheric instability in the development of very large wildfires. In this work, we focus on the Iberian Peninsula for the period spanning 2004-2018. We show that atmospheric instability, assessed by the Continuous Haines Index (CHI), can be used to improve estimates of the probability of exceedance of energy released by fires. To achieve this, we consider a Generalized Pareto (GP) model and we show that by stepwisely introducing the FWI and then the CHI as covariates of the GP parameters, the model is improved at each stage. A comprehensive comparison of results using the GP with the FWI as a covariate and the GP with both the FWI and CHI as covariates allowed us to then define a correction to the FWI, dependent on the CHI, that we coined enhanced FWI (FWIe). Besides ensuring a better performance of this improved FWI version, it is important to stress that the proposed FWIe incorporates efficiently the effect of atmospheric instability into an estimation of fire weather danger and can be easily incorporated into existing systems. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	continuous Haines index; fire danger; fire weather index; wildfires
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Stability; Comprehensive comparisons; Existing systems; Fire danger; Fire weather; Fire weather index; Iberian Peninsula; Probability of exceedance; Surface weather conditions; Fires; correction; estimation method; numerical model; performance assessment; probability; weather; Iberian Peninsula
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153758
作者单位	Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, 1749-016, Portugal; Departamento de Meteorologia e Geofísica, Instituto Português Do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), Lisbon, 1749-077, Portugal; Departamento de Meteorologia, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pinto M.M.,Dacamara C.C.,Hurduc A.,et al. Enhancing the fire weather index with atmospheric instability information[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Pinto M.M.,Dacamara C.C.,Hurduc A.,Trigo R.M.,&Trigo I.F..(2020).Enhancing the fire weather index with atmospheric instability information.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Pinto M.M.,et al."Enhancing the fire weather index with atmospheric instability information".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).