气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Controls of the transient climate response to emissions by physical feedbacks, heat uptake and carbon cycling

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab97c9
	Controls of the transient climate response to emissions by physical feedbacks, heat uptake and carbon cycling
	Williams R.G.; Ceppi P.; Katavouta A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	The surface warming response to carbon emissions is diagnosed using a suite of Earth system models, 9 CMIP6 and 7 CMIP5, following an annual 1% rise in atmospheric CO2 over 140 years. This surface warming response defines a climate metric, the Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE), which is important in estimating how much carbon may be emitted to avoid dangerous climate. The processes controlling these intermodel differences in the TCRE are revealed by defining the TCRE in terms of a product of three dependences: The surface warming dependence on radiative forcing (including the effects of physical climate feedbacks and planetary heat uptake), the radiative forcing dependence on changes in atmospheric carbon and the airborne fraction. Intermodel differences in the TCRE are mainly controlled by the thermal response involving the surface warming dependence on radiative forcing, which arise through large differences in physical climate feedbacks that are only partly compensated by smaller differences in ocean heat uptake. The other contributions to the TCRE from the radiative forcing and carbon responses are of comparable importance to the contribution from the thermal response on timescales of 50 years and longer for our subset of CMIP5 models and 100 years and longer for our subset of CMIP6 models. Hence, providing tighter constraints on how much carbon may be emitted based on the TCRE requires providing tighter bounds for estimates of the physical climate feedbacks, particularly from clouds, as well as to a lesser extent for the other contributions from the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the terrestrial and ocean cycling of carbon. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric radiation; Carbon; Climate models; Atmospheric carbon; Carbon emissions; Climate feedbacks; Climate response; Earth system model; Ocean heat uptake; Radiative forcings; Thermal response; Transient analysis; atmospheric gas; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; climate effect; CMIP; radiative forcing
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153736
作者单位	Department of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom; Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Williams R.G.,Ceppi P.,Katavouta A.. Controls of the transient climate response to emissions by physical feedbacks, heat uptake and carbon cycling[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Williams R.G.,Ceppi P.,&Katavouta A..(2020).Controls of the transient climate response to emissions by physical feedbacks, heat uptake and carbon cycling.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Williams R.G.,et al."Controls of the transient climate response to emissions by physical feedbacks, heat uptake and carbon cycling".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).