气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab9cff
	An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures
	Ciemer C.; Rehm L.; Kurths J.; Donner R.V.; Winkelmann R.; Boers N.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Amazon rainforest; Complex networks; Droughts; Prediction
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Complex networks; Drought; Rain; Submarine geophysics; Surface properties; Surface waters; Tropics; Amazon rain forest; Early warning indicators; Early-warning method; Prominent region; Rainfall anomaly; Sea surface temperature anomalies; Time-dependent correlation; Tropical atlantic; Oceanography; drought; early warning system; forecasting method; hindcasting; livelihood; rainforest; sea surface temperature; time dependent behavior; Amazon Basin; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (Tropical); South America
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153728
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; Department of Physics, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany; Department of Physics, Free University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Nizhny Novgorod State University, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation; Department of Water, Environment, Construction and Safety, Magdeburg-Stendal University of Applied Sciences, Magdeburg, Germany; Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Free University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ciemer C.,Rehm L.,Kurths J.,et al. An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Ciemer C.,Rehm L.,Kurths J.,Donner R.V.,Winkelmann R.,&Boers N..(2020).An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Ciemer C.,et al."An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).