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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aba20c
	Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °c global temperature rise
	Peace A.H.; Carslaw K.S.; Lee L.A.; Regayre L.A.; Booth B.B.B.; Johnson J.S.; Bernie D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are predicted to decline sharply throughout the 21st century, in line with climate change and air quality mitigation policies, causing a near-term warming of climate that will impact our trajectory towards 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. However, the persistent uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing limits our understanding of how much the global mean temperature will respond to near-term reductions in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. We quantify the model and scenario uncertainty in global mean aerosol radiative forcing up to 2050 using statistical emulation of a perturbed parameter ensemble for emission reduction scenarios consistent with three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We then use a simple climate model to translate the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing into uncertainty in global mean temperature projections, accounting additionally for the potential correlation of aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. Near-term aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty alone causes an uncertainty window of around 5 years (2034-2039) on the projected year of exceeding a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures for a middle of the road emissions scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5). A correlation between aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity would increase the 1.5 °C exceedance window by many years. The results highlight the importance of quantifying aerosol radiative forcing and any relationship with climate sensitivity in climate models in order to reduce uncertainty in temperature projections. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Aerosols; Climate; Forcing; Radiative; Uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Aerosols; Air quality; Atmospheric radiation; Climate change; Emission control; Aerosol radiative forcing; Anthropogenic aerosols; Climate sensitivity; Emissions scenarios; Global temperatures; Global-mean temperature; Mitigation policies; Temperature projection; Climate models; aerosol; global change; radiative forcing; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153723
作者单位	Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Engineering and Mathematics, Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Peace A.H.,Carslaw K.S.,Lee L.A.,et al. Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °c global temperature rise[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Peace A.H..,Carslaw K.S..,Lee L.A..,Regayre L.A..,Booth B.B.B..,...&Bernie D..(2020).Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °c global temperature rise.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Peace A.H.,et al."Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °c global temperature rise".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).