气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in Western Europe

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aba3d4
	Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in Western Europe
	Vautard R.; Van Aalst M.; Boucher O.; Drouin A.; Haustein K.; Kreienkamp F.; Van Oldenborgh G.J.; Otto F.E.L.; Ribes A.; Robin Y.; Schneider M.; Soubeyroux J.-M.; Stott P.; Seneviratne S.I.; Vogel M.M.; Wehner M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	Two extreme heatwaves hit Western Europe in the summer of 2019, with historical records broken by more than a degree in many locations, and significant societal impacts, including excess mortality of several thousand people. The extent to which human influence has played a role in the occurrence of these events has been of large interest to scientists, media and decision makers. However, the outstanding nature of these events poses challenges for physical and statistical modeling. Using an unprecedented number of climate model ensembles and statistical extreme value modeling, we demonstrate that these short and intense events would have had extremely small odds in the absence of human-induced climate change, and equivalently frequent events would have been 1.5 °C to 3 °C colder. For instance, in France and in The Netherlands, the July 3-day heatwave has a 50-150-year return period in the current climate and a return period of more than 1000 years without human forcing. The increase in the intensities is larger than the global warming by a factor 2 to 3. Finally, we note that the observed trends are much larger than those in current climate models. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Climate change; Extreme event attribution; Heat wave
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Decision making; Global warming; Decision makers; Historical records; Human influences; Model ensembles; Return periods; Societal impacts; Statistical modeling; Western Europe; Climate models; climate change; heat wave; nature-society relations; spatiotemporal analysis; Western Europe
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153718
作者单位	Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Paris, France; University of Twente and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Netherlands; Méteó-France, Toulouse, France; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Deutsche Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany; Knmi, de Bilt, Netherlands; U.K. Met. Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Eth Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vautard R.,Van Aalst M.,Boucher O.,et al. Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in Western Europe[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Vautard R..,Van Aalst M..,Boucher O..,Drouin A..,Haustein K..,...&Wehner M..(2020).Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in Western Europe.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Vautard R.,et al."Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in Western Europe".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).