气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Late 1980s abrupt cold season temperature change in Europe consistent with circulation variability and long-term warming

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab86f2
	Late 1980s abrupt cold season temperature change in Europe consistent with circulation variability and long-term warming
	Sippel S.; Fischer E.M.; Scherrer S.C.; Meinshausen N.; Knutti R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	Cold season temperatures in Europe have increased rapidly by about 1.2°C in the late 1980s, followed by relatively modest and regionally flat temperature trends thereafter. The abrupt change affected the entire European continent and coincided regionally with abrupt hydroclimatic changes such as a widespread reduction in snow days in Switzerland. However, the drivers and causes of the event are not well understood. Using a dynamical adjustment method based on statistical learning, we find that the continental-scale late 1980s abrupt winter warming and regional decreases in snow days can be attributed to cold conditions in the mid-1980s followed by a few exceptionally warm seasons. Both are caused by random atmospheric circulation variability superimposed upon a long-term and relatively homogenous warming trend, and do not require an external cause or change of the underlying dynamics of the system. This explanation is consistent with simulations from a 21-member regional climate model ensemble, in which four members display comparable abrupt temperature increases regionally driven by circulation and a long-term externally forced response. Overall, our analysis provides an observation-based interpretation of abrupt temperature change at the continental scale, associated hydroclimatic changes regionally, and its drivers. Furthermore, our method might contribute to improved mechanistic understanding of different observed climate phenomena in many regions of the world that experience high variability. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Abrupt climate change; Climate change; Climate variability; Dynamical adjustment
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Snow; Adjustment method; Atmospheric circulation variability; Regional climate modeling; Statistical learning; Temperature changes; Temperature increase; Temperature trends; Underlying dynamics; Climate models; atmospheric circulation; climate modeling; long-term change; regional climate; season; warming; Switzerland
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153712
作者单位	Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Eth Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Seminar for Statistics, Eth Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Climate Division, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), Zurich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sippel S.,Fischer E.M.,Scherrer S.C.,et al. Late 1980s abrupt cold season temperature change in Europe consistent with circulation variability and long-term warming[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Sippel S.,Fischer E.M.,Scherrer S.C.,Meinshausen N.,&Knutti R..(2020).Late 1980s abrupt cold season temperature change in Europe consistent with circulation variability and long-term warming.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Sippel S.,et al."Late 1980s abrupt cold season temperature change in Europe consistent with circulation variability and long-term warming".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).