气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected changes in hot, dry and wet extreme events' clusters in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab90a7
	Projected changes in hot, dry and wet extreme events' clusters in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
	Vogel M.M.; Hauser M.; Seneviratne S.I.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	Concurrent extreme events, i.e. multi-variate extremes, can be associated with strong impacts. Hence, an understanding of how such events are changing in a warming climate is helpful to avoid some associated climate change impacts and better prepare for them. In this article, we analyse the projected occurrence of hot, dry, and wet extreme events' clusters in the multi-model ensemble of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Changes in 'extreme extremes', i.e. events with only 1% probability of occurrence in the current climate are analysed, first as univariate extremes, and then when co-occurring with other types of extremes (i.e. events clusters) within the same week, month or year. The projections are analysed for present-day climate (+1 C) and different levels of additional global warming (+1.5 C, +2 C, +3 C). The results reveal substantial risk of occurrence of extreme events' clusters of different types across the globe at higher global warming levels. Hotspot regions for hot and dry clusters are mainly found in Brazil, i.e. in the Northeast and the Amazon rain forest, the Mediterranean region, and Southern Africa. Hotspot regions for wet and hot clusters are found in tropical Africa but also in the Sahel region, Indonesia, and in mountainous regions such as the Andes and the Himalaya. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate extremes; CMIP6; compound events events clusters climate projections
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Environmental engineering; Research; Amazon rain forest; Climate change impact; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Mediterranean region; Mountainous regions; Multi-model ensemble; Probability of occurrence; Warming climate; Global warming
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153701
作者单位	Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vogel M.M.,Hauser M.,Seneviratne S.I.. Projected changes in hot, dry and wet extreme events' clusters in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Vogel M.M.,Hauser M.,&Seneviratne S.I..(2020).Projected changes in hot, dry and wet extreme events' clusters in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Vogel M.M.,et al."Projected changes in hot, dry and wet extreme events' clusters in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).