气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): One simulation, different conclusions—the baseline period makes the difference!

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aba3d7
	One simulation, different conclusions—the baseline period makes the difference!
	Liersch S.; Drews M.; Pilz T.; Salack S.; Sietz D.; Aich V.; Larsen M.A.D.; Gädeke A.; Halsnæs K.; Thiery W.; Huang S.; Lobanova A.; Koch H.; Hattermann F.F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:10
英文摘要	The choice of the baseline period, intentionally chosen or not, as a reference for assessing future changes of any projected variable can play an important role for the resulting statement. In regional climate impact studies, well-established or arbitrarily chosen baselines are often used without being questioned. Here we investigated the effects of different baseline periods on the interpretation of discharge simulations from eight river basins in the period 1960–2099. The simulations were forced by four bias-adjusted and downscaled Global Climate Modelsunder two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). To systematically evaluate how far the choice of different baselines impacts the simulation results, we developed a similarity index that compares two time series of projected changes. The results show that 25% of the analyzed simulations are sensitive to the choice of the baseline period under RCP 2.6 and 32% under RCP 8.5. In extreme cases, change signals of two time series show opposite trends. This has serious consequences for key messages drawn from a basin-scale climate impact study. To address this problem, an algorithm was developed to identify flexible baseline periods for each simulation individually, which better represent the statistical properties of a given historical period. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd
英文关键词	Baseline period; Climate impacts; Climate projections; Flexible baseline
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric radiation; Climate impacts; Discharge simulations; Global climates; Historical periods; Radiative forcings; Regional climate; Similarity indices; Statistical properties; Time series; assessment method; baseline survey; climate effect; radiative forcing; regional climate; river basin; river discharge; simulation
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153693
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, D-14412, Germany; Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Produktionstorvet, Kongens Lyngby, 2800, Denmark; WASCAL Competence Center, Blvd Moammar El-Khadafi,, Ouagadougou 06, Ouagadougou, 06BP 9507, Burkina Faso; Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Secretariat, c/o World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United States; Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Brussels, Belgium; Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), PO Box5091, Majorstua, Oslo, 0301, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liersch S.,Drews M.,Pilz T.,等. One simulation, different conclusions—the baseline period makes the difference![J],2020,15(10).
APA	Liersch S..,Drews M..,Pilz T..,Salack S..,Sietz D..,...&Hattermann F.F..(2020).One simulation, different conclusions—the baseline period makes the difference!.Environmental Research Letters,15(10).
MLA	Liersch S.,et al."One simulation, different conclusions—the baseline period makes the difference!".Environmental Research Letters 15.10(2020).