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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab8ca6
	The effect of surge on riverine flood hazard and impact in deltas globally
	Eilander D.; Couasnon A.; Ikeuchi H.; Muis S.; Yamazaki D.; Winsemius H.C.; Ward P.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:10
英文摘要	Current global riverine flood risk studies assume a constant mean sea level boundary. In reality high sea levels can propagate up a river, impede high river discharge, thus leading to elevated water levels. Riverine flood risk in deltas may therefore be underestimated. This paper presents the first global scale assessment of the joint influence of riverine and coastal drivers of flooding in deltas. We show that if storm surge is ignored, flood depths are significantly underestimated for 9.3% of the expected annual population exposed to riverine flooding. The assessment is based on extreme water levels at 3433 river mouth locations as modeled by a state-of-The-Art global river routing model, forced with a multi-model runoff ensemble and bounded by dynamic sea level conditions derived from a global tide and surge reanalysis. We first classified the drivers of riverine flooding at each location into four classes: surge-dominant, discharge-dominant, compound-dominant or insignificant. We then developed a model experiment to quantify the effect of surge on flood hazard and impacts. Drivers of riverine flooding are compound-dominant at 19.7% of the locations analyzed, discharge-dominant at 69.2%, and surge-dominant at 7.8%. Compared to locations with either surge-or discharge-dominant flood drivers, locations with compound-dominant flood drivers generally have larger surge extremes and are located in basins with faster discharge response and/or flat topography. Globally, surge exacerbates 1-in-10 years flood levels at 64.0% of the locations analyzed, with a mean increase of 11 cm. While this increase is generally larger at locations with compound-or surge-dominant flood drivers, flood levels also increase at locations with discharge-dominant flood drivers. This study underlines the importance of including dynamic downstream sea level boundaries in (global) riverine flood risk studies. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Hazards; Location; Risk perception; Rivers; Sea level; Topography; Water levels; Joint influence; Mean sea level; Model experiments; River discharge; Riverine flooding; Riverine floods; Sea level condition; State of the art; Floods; extreme event; flooding; risk assessment; river discharge; sea level change; storm surge; water level
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153691
作者单位	Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Kyoto, Japan; Institute of Industrial Sciences, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Eilander D.,Couasnon A.,Ikeuchi H.,et al. The effect of surge on riverine flood hazard and impact in deltas globally[J],2020,15(10).
APA	Eilander D..,Couasnon A..,Ikeuchi H..,Muis S..,Yamazaki D..,...&Ward P.J..(2020).The effect of surge on riverine flood hazard and impact in deltas globally.Environmental Research Letters,15(10).
MLA	Eilander D.,et al."The effect of surge on riverine flood hazard and impact in deltas globally".Environmental Research Letters 15.10(2020).