气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Probability of compound climate extremes in a changing climate: A copula-based study of hot, dry, and windy events in the central United States

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/abb1ef
	Probability of compound climate extremes in a changing climate: A copula-based study of hot, dry, and windy events in the central United States
	Tavakol A.; Rahmani V.; Harrington J.; Jr.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:10
英文摘要	Climate extreme events exert disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and humankind. Focusing on univariate statistics to estimate the harm from compound extreme events usually falls short in communicating the real risk. Here, the co-occurrence of hot, dry, and windy events (HDWs) in the central United States was analyzed over the period 1949–2018. Results demonstrate south-west Kansas and north Texas as locations where HDWs are more frequent. The combination of drought and a heatwave in 1980 and 2011, increased the likelihood of HDWs. Use of copula enables the study of the co-occurrence of multiple extremes. The copula approach identified a greater risk of HDWs compared with traditional empirical analysis. The dependence structure between the temperature, humidity, and wind variables showed no effect on the co-occurrence frequency of HDWs in the warm-season (May through September). Results suggest an increase in the risk of HDWs in spite of the historical wind speed drop across the majority of Great Plains. Multivariate perspectives are necessary for a more informed assessment of compound extremes risk and for improved design of adaption strategies. © 2020 The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; Concurrent extremes; Correlated extremes; Great plains; Heatwave; Hot-dry-winds; Joint probability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Risk perception; Wind; Changing climate; Climate extremes; Co-occurrence; Dependence structures; Empirical analysis; Extreme events; Improved designs; Warm seasons; Risk assessment; air temperature; arid region; drought stress; empirical analysis; extreme event; heat wave; wind velocity; Great Plains; Kansas; Texas; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153690
作者单位	Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Kansas State University, 1016 Seaton Hall, Manhattan, KS 66506, United States; 19 School St., Bay Center, WA 98527, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tavakol A.,Rahmani V.,Harrington J.,et al. Probability of compound climate extremes in a changing climate: A copula-based study of hot, dry, and windy events in the central United States[J],2020,15(10).
APA	Tavakol A.,Rahmani V.,Harrington J.,&Jr..(2020).Probability of compound climate extremes in a changing climate: A copula-based study of hot, dry, and windy events in the central United States.Environmental Research Letters,15(10).
MLA	Tavakol A.,et al."Probability of compound climate extremes in a changing climate: A copula-based study of hot, dry, and windy events in the central United States".Environmental Research Letters 15.10(2020).