气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increasing concurrence of wildfire drivers tripled megafire critical danger days in Southern California between1982 and 2018

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/abae9e
	Increasing concurrence of wildfire drivers tripled megafire critical danger days in Southern California between1982 and 2018
	Khorshidi M.S.; Dennison P.E.; Nikoo M.R.; Aghakouchak A.; Luce C.H.; Sadegh M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:10
英文摘要	Wildfire danger is often ascribed to increased temperature, decreased humidity, drier fuels, or higher wind speed. However, the concurrence of drivers-defined as climate, meteorological and biophysical factors that enable fire growth-is rarely tested for commonly used fire danger indices or climate change studies. Treating causal factors as independent additive influences can lead to inaccurate inferences about shifting hazards if the factors interact as a series of switches that collectively modulate fire growth. As evidence, we show that in Southern California very large fires and 'megafires' are more strongly associated with multiple drivers exceeding moderate thresholds concurrently, rather than direct relationships with extreme magnitudes of individual drivers or additive combinations of those drivers. Days with concurrent fire drivers exceeding thresholds have increased more rapidly over the past four decades than individual drivers, leading to a tripling of annual 'megafire critical danger days'. Assessments of changing wildfire risks should explicitly address concurrence of fire drivers to provide a more precise assessment of this hazard in the face of a changing climate. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Additives; Fires; Hazards; Risk assessment; Wind; Biophysical factors; Changing climate; Fire danger; Fire growth; Increased temperature; Southern California; Wildfire risks; Wind speed; Climate change; climate effect; environmental impact; wildfire; California; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153687
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran; Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States; Us Forest Service Aquatic Science Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Boise, ID 83702, United States; Department of Civil Engineering, Boise State University, Boise, ID, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Khorshidi M.S.,Dennison P.E.,Nikoo M.R.,et al. Increasing concurrence of wildfire drivers tripled megafire critical danger days in Southern California between1982 and 2018[J],2020,15(10).
APA	Khorshidi M.S.,Dennison P.E.,Nikoo M.R.,Aghakouchak A.,Luce C.H.,&Sadegh M..(2020).Increasing concurrence of wildfire drivers tripled megafire critical danger days in Southern California between1982 and 2018.Environmental Research Letters,15(10).
MLA	Khorshidi M.S.,et al."Increasing concurrence of wildfire drivers tripled megafire critical danger days in Southern California between1982 and 2018".Environmental Research Letters 15.10(2020).