气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aba97c
	Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific
	Guo Y.-P.; Feng X.; Klingaman N.P.; Tan Z.-M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:10
英文摘要	The western North Pacific summer climate affects the densely populated East Asian countries, while seasonal forecasting over these regions remains challenging for dynamical models. This study evaluates the effect of the spring Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) Hadley circulation on the forecast performance for summer western North Pacific (WNP) precipitation in the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5). GloSea5 skillfully predicts IPWP Hadley circulation, but has moderate forecast skill for summer WNP precipitation. Compared to observations, the significant relationship between the spring IPWP Hadley circulation and the summer WNP precipitation is overestimated in most hindcast members and in the ensemble mean. Furthermore, we confirmed that the forecast ensemble members with a stronger such regional circulation-precipitation relationship have better forecast performance for the summer WNP precipitation, suggesting the importance of such a relationship for the seasonal forecast of WNP precipitation. These results also imply the need to further investigate other important factors for the WNP precipitation, the effects of which may be suppressed by the overestimated regional circulation-precipitation relationship in GloSea5. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd
英文关键词	Hadley circulation; Precipitation; Seasonal forecast; Western North Pacific
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; East Asian countries; Forecast performance; Precipitation relationships; Regional circulation; Seasonal forecasting; Seasonal forecasts; Summer precipitation; Western North Pacific; Forecasting; forecasting method; oceanic circulation; precipitation (climatology); seasonal variation; summer; warm pool; Indian Ocean; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153661
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 163 Xianlin Avenue, Nanjing, 210023, China; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo Y.-P.,Feng X.,Klingaman N.P.,et al. Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific[J],2020,15(10).
APA	Guo Y.-P.,Feng X.,Klingaman N.P.,&Tan Z.-M..(2020).Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific.Environmental Research Letters,15(10).
MLA	Guo Y.-P.,et al."Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific".Environmental Research Letters 15.10(2020).