气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except CERA20C

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aba7e6
	European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except CERA20C
	Wohland J.; Brayshaw D.; Bloomfield H.; Wild M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:10
英文摘要	Long-term historic climate datasets are valuable tools to investigate climate variability, validate climate models and contextualize anticipated climate change. Surface solar radiation is one particularly relevant variable, with implications on policy decisions (e.g. performance of solar panels) and fundamental questions in climate science (e.g. regarding the energy budget). While all current twentieth century reanalyses provide surface solar radiation, we demonstrate that most of them fail to capture multidecadal surface radiation variability in Europe. To this end, we systematically compare the reanalyses 20CRv2c, 20CRv3, ERA20C and CERA20C and the free model run ERA20CM. We show that only CERA20C captures dimming (1949–1979) and brightening (1979–2009) in line with station observations, satellite-era reanalyses and established theory. The lack of multidecadal surface radiation variability in 20CRv2c/v3 is plausible given the use of constant aerosols. In contrast, ERA20CM, ERA20C and CERA20C are forced with time-varying aerosols. Despite this common forcing, ERA20CM and ERA20C surprisingly show no trends in clear-sky fluxes over the dimming and brightening periods while CERA20C shows significant trends. We discuss different potential explanations for this discrepancy (model versions, ocean coupling and ensemble size) and conclude that none of them provides a convincing explanation. Our results therefore imply that only CERA20C is suitable for assessments of surface solar radiation variability on multi-decadal timescales. This particularly applies to impact studies, for example, on long-term potentials of solar power generation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd
英文关键词	20th century reanalysis; Brightening; CERA20C; Dimming; Photovoltaics; Radiation; Solar
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Aerosols; Budget control; Climate change; Solar power generation; Solar power plants; Solar radiation; Climate datasets; Climate variability; Long-term potential; Policy decisions; Solar variability; Surface radiation; Surface solar radiation; Twentieth century; Climate models; aerosol; decadal variation; long-term change; numerical model; satellite data; solar power; solar radiation; Europe
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153638
作者单位	Climate Policy Group, Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wohland J.,Brayshaw D.,Bloomfield H.,et al. European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except CERA20C[J],2020,15(10).
APA	Wohland J.,Brayshaw D.,Bloomfield H.,&Wild M..(2020).European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except CERA20C.Environmental Research Letters,15(10).
MLA	Wohland J.,et al."European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except CERA20C".Environmental Research Letters 15.10(2020).