气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): What chance of a sudden stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere?

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aba8c1
	What chance of a sudden stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere?
	Wang L.; Hardiman S.C.; Bett P.E.; Comer R.E.; Kent C.; Scaife A.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:10
英文摘要	Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are amongst the most dramatic events in the Earth's atmosphere and they drive extreme surface weather conditions. They have been recently linked to the hot and dry weather conditions that favour wildfires over Australia. However, the chance of a southern hemisphere event is unknown because it has only been observed once. Legitimate estimation of the frequency of SSW events requires a large sample of realistic model simulations. Here we show that the chance of an event is close to 4% per year, implying that an event will occur, on average, every 25 yr, using a state-of-the-art model that simulates SSWs accurately. It is thus not surprising that there was a near miss in the September prior to the Australian wildfire of 2019, given the 40 yr of comprehensive satellite records and just one observed Antarctic event. According to this new estimate, it would also not be surprising to see a second SSW event in the coming years in the southern hemisphere. Such a stratospheric warming event might bring further extreme surface weather conditions and natural hazards, as it may raise the risk of increased rainfall in the latitudinal band of 35-50°S. Meanwhile, the associated hot and dry weather conditions over austral subtropical continents might increase the risk of wildfires over these regions. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Polar vortex; Southern hemisphere; Sudden stratospheric warming; Wildfire
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Earth atmosphere; Fires; Frequency estimation; Dry weathers; Natural hazard; Realistic model; Southern Hemisphere; State of the art; Stratospheric warmings; Sudden stratospheric warming; Surface weather conditions; Meteorology; air temperature; climate effect; climate modeling; global warming; rainfall; satellite data; seasonality; Southern Hemisphere; stratosphere; temperature anomaly; wildfire; Australia
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153636
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Shanghai Institute of Pollution Control and Ecological Security, Shanghai, China; Big Data Institute for Carbon Emission and Environmental Pollution, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitz Roy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang L.,Hardiman S.C.,Bett P.E.,et al. What chance of a sudden stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere?[J],2020,15(10).
APA	Wang L.,Hardiman S.C.,Bett P.E.,Comer R.E.,Kent C.,&Scaife A.A..(2020).What chance of a sudden stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere?.Environmental Research Letters,15(10).
MLA	Wang L.,et al."What chance of a sudden stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere?".Environmental Research Letters 15.10(2020).