气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5
	High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate
	Karjalainen O.; Luoto M.; Aalto J.; Etzelmüller B.; Grosse G.; Jones B.M.; Lilleøren K.S.; Hjort J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:10
英文摘要	The presence of ground ice in Arctic soils exerts a major effect on permafrost hydrology and ecology, and factors prominently into geomorphic landform development. As most ground ice has accumulated in near-surface permafrost, it is sensitive to variations in atmospheric conditions. Typical and regionally widespread permafrost landforms such as pingos, ice-wedge polygons, and rock glaciers are closely tied to ground ice. However, under ongoing climate change, suitable environmental spaces for preserving landforms associated with ice-rich permafrost may be rapidly disappearing. We deploy a statistical ensemble approach to model, for the first time, the current and potential future environmental conditions of three typical permafrost landforms, pingos, ice-wedge polygons and rock glaciers across the Northern Hemisphere. We show that by midcentury, the landforms are projected to lose more than one-fifth of their suitable environments under a moderate climate scenario (RCP4.5) and on average around one-third under a very high baseline emission scenario (RCP8.5), even when projected new suitable areas for occurrence are considered. By 2061–2080, on average more than 50% of the recent suitable conditions can be lost (RCP8.5). In the case of pingos and ice-wedge polygons, geographical changes are mainly attributed to alterations in thawing-season precipitation and air temperatures. Rock glaciers show air temperature-induced regional changes in suitable conditions strongly constrained by topography and soil properties. The predicted losses could have important implications for Arctic hydrology, geo- and biodiversity, and to the global climate system through changes in biogeochemical cycles governed by the geomorphology of permafrost landscapes. Moreover, our projections provide insights into the circumpolar distribution of various ground ice types and help inventory permafrost landforms in unmapped regions. © 2020 The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; Environmental change; Environmental space; Geodiversity; Ground ice; Permafrost; Statistical ensemble modelling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Biodiversity; Biogeochemistry; Climate change; Ecology; Geometry; Geomorphology; Hydrology; Ice; Landforms; Topography; Atmospheric conditions; Biogeochemical cycle; Environmental conditions; Global climate system; Northern Hemispheres; Permafrost hydrology; Season precipitation; Statistical ensembles; Permafrost; circumpolar current; climate change; geomorphology; global climate; hydrology; inventory; permafrost; rock glacier; topography; Arctic
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153621
作者单位	Geography Research Unit, University of Oulu, P.O. Box 3000, Oulu, 90014, Finland; Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, Helsinki, 00014, Finland; Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, Helsinki, 00101, Finland; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047, Oslo, 0316, Norway; Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14773, Germany; University of Potsdam, Institute of Geosciences, Potsdam, 14776, Germany; Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 755860, Fairbanks, AL 99775, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Karjalainen O.,Luoto M.,Aalto J.,et al. High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate[J],2020,15(10).
APA	Karjalainen O..,Luoto M..,Aalto J..,Etzelmüller B..,Grosse G..,...&Hjort J..(2020).High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate.Environmental Research Letters,15(10).
MLA	Karjalainen O.,et al."High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate".Environmental Research Letters 15.10(2020).