气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/abb397
	Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations
	Akinsanola A.A.; Kooperman G.J.; Reed K.A.; Pendergrass A.G.; Hannah W.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:10
英文摘要	Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitation extremes over the United States (US). Under a projected fossil-fuel based economic (i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions) scenario, our results show consistent changes in the seasonal patterns for many precipitation extremes by the end of the 21st century. We find a robust projected increase in the intensity of winter precipitation across models, with less agreement during the summer. Similarly, a robust projected amplification of heavy precipitation over the northern US is evident in winter, while intermodel spread is prevalent in summer projections. Specifically, the heavy and very heavy winter precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm) exhibit larger increases compared to other aspects of precipitation. Additionally, changes in dry extremes (e.g. consecutive dry days) are found to differ significantly across various subregions and seasons. Overall, our results suggest that the US may suffer more natural disasters such as floods and droughts in the future. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate change; ETCCDI; global warming; multimodel ensemble mean
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Disasters; Fossil fuels; Gas emissions; Greenhouse gases; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Global climate model; Heavy precipitation; Natural disasters; Precipitation extremes; Seasonal patterns; Seasonal precipitations; Winter precipitation; Climate change; amplification; climate change; climate effect; climate prediction; CMIP; extreme event; global climate; greenhouse gas; precipitation (climatology); precipitation assessment; precipitation intensity; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153576
作者单位	Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Akinsanola A.A.,Kooperman G.J.,Reed K.A.,et al. Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations[J],2020,15(10).
APA	Akinsanola A.A.,Kooperman G.J.,Reed K.A.,Pendergrass A.G.,&Hannah W.M..(2020).Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations.Environmental Research Letters,15(10).
MLA	Akinsanola A.A.,et al."Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations".Environmental Research Letters 15.10(2020).